Key Points and Summary – A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent, despite constant military rehearsals and bellicose rhetoric. Beijing’s strategy is one of patient deterrence, not immediate conquest.
-The memory of the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, when a U.S. carrier strike group forced China to back down, still looms large.
J-35 Stealth Fighter from China. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Since then, China has built a formidable military to prevent a repeat of that humiliation.
-However, an actual invasion would likely only be triggered by a dramatic shift in Taipei, such as a formal declaration of independence by a new, more defiant political party—a line the current leadership has not crossed.
No, China Will Not Attack Taiwan in the Near Future
The Taiwan question is the biggest issue facing the Chinese military. It drives the Middle Kingdom’s grand strategy and has obsessed leaders for decades. Xi Jinping is no exception. Every military move he makes has implications for future China-Taiwan relations.
An attack to reunify the island with the mainland is always imminent. Xi will be judged by Chinese historians on how well he handles the Taiwan issue. He cannot “lose” the island.
Taiwan has always been considered a wayward renegade province that annoys the Chinese like a bee in a bonnet. Taiwan is seen as rightfully owned by Beijing. Full independence would be a nightmare for the People’s Republic.
I have written that I don’t see China attacking Taiwan anytime soon, though. The Chinese do not do anything quickly without ample strategic foresight. They plod along, simmering with irritation, and always talk a big game. They do rehearse amphibious landings to overthrow the government of Taiwan, but that doesn’t mean an attack will come in the next year or two.
China J-20 Fighter X Screenshot.
A More Belligerent Taiwanese Political Party Would Cause an Attack
What would put the Chinese over the edge would be if a new, highly defiant ruler or a different rebellious political party came to power in Taiwan and claimed complete independence. Lai Ching-te has been head of state since 2024. He leads the Democratic Progressive Party, which is vaguely pro-independence and favors more human and civil rights on the mainland.
Lai is considered a pest in China. The Chinese believe he is deceptive and manipulates historical facts to favor independence. He supports more military hardware purchases from the United States and would like to continue combined arms exercises with the Americans. This rankles Beijing, but not necessarily enough to convince the Chinese to invade Taiwan.
The 1995-1996 Taiwan Crisis
However, there is one event that Xi remembers well, which is a historical catalyst for a worsening of cross-strait relations. The 1995-1996 Taiwan Crisis remains a sore point for many Chinese who now govern the country.
The “third” crisis began when the United States gave a tourist visa to Taiwan’s President Lee Teng-hui in May 1995. Lee was the first native born Taiwanese political leader. He challenged the “One China” concept and even wanted Taiwan to join the United Nations. Lee yearned for the days when Taiwan could have official diplomatic relations with the United States and European countries. This rankled China and created immense bad blood. Lee also wanted to purchase F-16s from the United States.
What Happened?
China answered by recalling its ambassador to the United States. The People’s Republic then practiced an amphibious landing against Taiwan and placed a huge force of 100,000 military personnel on the east coast province of Fujian. The Chinese also fired six different ballistic missiles launches near Taiwan. President Bill Clinton ordered two aircraft carrier strike groups to the region – the USS Nimitz and the USS Independence. As a result, China’s live fire exercises finally ended in 1996.
The Crisis Taught the Chinese Well
China learned lessons from that crisis. President Jiang Zemin believed the United States would intervene militarily in a kinetic action against China’s army and navy. The Middle Kingdom recognized that additional military exercises would be necessary to rehearse an amphibious attack. They also wanted mobile missile launchers that could take out American aircraft carriers. The Chinese desired their own carriers and a bigger surface fleet.
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Jiang vowed to keep the Americans from intervening. He wanted a weak Taiwan and a severing of U.S.-Taiwan relations. The Chinese wanted to have high-level communications during future crises. Jiang believed his political leadership should never take its eyes off the main prize – Taiwan’s loyalty to the mainland. The Chinese also desired more military options – better ballistic missiles, new amphibious warfare craft, and stealth fighter jets and bombers.
Xi Jinping Has Seen It All Before
Xi has now concluded that Taiwan will make or break his legacy. The 1995-1996 crisis fuels his thinking, and he considers this a seminal event in his country’s history. China now has three aircraft carriers with a fourth on the way. There are hundreds of land-launched ballistic missiles pointed at Taiwan. China executes “grey zone” tactics with airplanes and amphibious seacraft encroaching on Taiwan’s sovereignty regularly. He repeatedly warns the United States not to interfere in the China-Taiwan relationship.
China is always ready for an attack against Taiwan. But such an event is not imminent unless the island’s political leadership makes more defiant moves toward independence. This would necessitate a much more assertive and rebellious new political party coming to power that would prod Xi into action. The current Taiwanese president is not the leader who will push China over the edge. However, many U.S. military leaders and China watchers believe that an attack could come in 2027 when Chinese military capabilities in the strait are fully mature. This is plausible but not likely. China prefers warning Taiwan to maintain the “One China” status quo with an arms build-up to deter any rebellious instincts.
The United States could intervene, but China is not prepared for the eventuality. As it stands, China will continue to rehearse attacks against Taiwan but will not execute full reunification by military force. Xi does not want to lose the island to independence, but Taiwan is not making the kind of strategic moves that would lead to a complete break from China. Thus, no full-scale Chinese attack is imminent.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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John Rapo
August 27, 2025 at 5:56 pm
Aircraft carriers and ballistic missiles cause destruction but do not occupy territory. If China’s ground forces land on Taiwan, the defenders will not have to fire a single shot. Just throw money at the landing sites and the Chinese soldiers will throw down their weapons and start packing them up. And the CCP knows this.
Krystal cane
August 27, 2025 at 10:54 pm
Is it Trump’s trying to cut a cash deal with them ?