They say the best lies contain grains of truth. That’s what makes Beijing’s disinformation about Taiwan so dangerous.
China has devised several misleading narratives about Taiwan that are designed to weaken America’s support for the island. It has been actively peddling these narratives in U.S. policy circles. U.S. officials must be prepared to recognize and counteract these falsehoods.
Three such narratives are especially pernicious.
The first is the false notion that cross-Strait tensions are entirely the fault of Taiwan’s “troublemaker” president, Lai Ching-te. To be sure, Beijing has grievances with Lai and his nativist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai has a history of pro-independence activism, and his speeches since becoming president have included statements viewed as provocative in China.
Beijing feels compelled to respond forcefully to perceived slights by Taiwan’s president to placate domestic audiences, so U.S. policymakers shouldn’t be surprised when Lai’s speeches spark aggressive military maneuvers.
But Lai has moderated his policies since running for president, and officials and academics from China know he lacks the authority to declare formal independence. In private conversations, they sometimes acknowledge not feeling threatened by Lai, and some believe the more controversial parts of his speeches are largely intended to appease radical elements of his political base. They’re probably right.
Tensions existed long before Lai entered the scene. His predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, went out of her way early in her tenure to avoid antagonizing Beijing. But the Communist Party apparently decided having an enemy in the DPP that it could blame for its failures in Taiwan was more politically expedient than preserving cross-Strait stability.
The notion that Lai or his party is solely responsible for cross-Strait tensions is an attempt to create friction between the U.S. and Taiwanese governments. Beijing knows Trump doesn’t want unnecessary trouble and will go to great lengths to convince him Lai is making his job harder by stoking tensions with China. Trump must see through Beijing’s attempts to manipulate him and firmly support the government in Taipei, while having administration officials work quietly, behind closed doors, to address legitimate concerns with Taiwan’s government.
The second great lie is that the U.S. president can significantly reduce tensions over Taiwan by declaring support for peaceful unification. The Chinese agents peddling this proposal in Washington cleverly claim that, since peaceful unification lacks sufficient support in Taiwan to be a serious possibility, making such a declaration is a risk-free way to decrease tensions.
To be sure, the U.S. has a role to play in preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. To this end, it’s important for Trump to reiterate the longstanding policy of opposing any unilateral change to the status quo, whether formal independence or forced unification.
But a presidential statement declaring support for peaceful unification would be a dangerous step too far. Beijing would use such a statement to bolster its case that America’s support for Taiwan, including its arms sales to the island, is inconsistent with declared U.S. policy and commitments made to China. It would also use the declaration to manipulate Trump’s successors and the governments of other countries into also backing unification. While none of this on its own would immediately change how the U.S. and other countries engage Taiwan, it would contribute to Beijing’s effort to erode the island’s international legitimacy.
The third false narrative Trump and his administration must watch out for is the notion that China will make any sacrifice necessary to seize Taiwan, and that it’s only a matter of time before it does so. This is perhaps the most dangerous narrative, one that many in the U.S. already embrace.
China cares more about Taiwan than most Americans do, so Beijing may well be willing to sacrifice more to seize the island than the U.S. would to defend it. But this is a far cry from saying no price is too high.
The only interest China’s leaders are prepared to pay any price for is staying in power, and even a successful military campaign against Taiwan could jeopardize this overriding interest if the economic and social costs are too high. China is only likely to take military action against Taiwan if its leaders are convinced either that they can easily win at a cost that wouldn’t threaten their political standing or that failure to act would threaten their hold on power.
The credible likelihood of U.S. involvement in any conflict over Taiwan minimizes the possibility that decisionmakers in Beijing will ever believe they can seize the island at a cost they’re politically able to bear. It is thus one of the greatest deterrents against Chinese military action.
The belief that no cost is high enough to dissuade China from attacking Taiwan once it has the military capability to do so logically leads to the conclusion that continued U.S. support for the island will mean eventually getting pulled into in a war against China—an outcome no rational American wants. If Beijing can lead enough opinion leaders to think this way over time, it believes it can convince U.S. policymakers to abandon the island.
This is the ultimate objective of Beijing’s disinformation campaign around Taiwan. The U.S. government must not fall for it.
About the Author: Michael Cunningham
Michael Cunningham is a Research Fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, where he focuses on China’s domestic politics and foreign policy. Prior to relocating to Washington, D.C. in 2021, Michael spent over a decade in the Greater China region, where he advised multinational businesses on the political, operational, and security risks associated with their business activities in China and Northeast Asia. Michael obtained a bachelor’s degree in international relations from Brigham Young University and a master’s degree in international affairs from American University. He has lived extensively in both mainland China and Taiwan and is fluent in Mandarin Chinese and Portuguese.
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doyle-2
July 14, 2025 at 3:32 pm
Both xi and (all) american politicians are rats, large big well-fed rats who mislead the entire whole world.
Xi has TOTALLY failed to ARTICULATE correctly the true situation around taiwan, THUS (or handing over to them a big blank plate) allowing the western media and their western politicians to write, direct, and control the entire taiwan narrative.
Of course, they are definitely no different from hitler’s famous goebbellian ministry.
Naturally, they produce a totally dirty, completely false and extremely misleading one, which will thereby soon fully allow the US to wage the coming deadly fatal ww3 right in the western pacific.
The US is always all-in for world wars, and so, the deadly dead ww3 is surely a shoo-in for the mega megalomaniacs on the potomac.
It’s time for the masses to drag xi down from his most high horse, KICK OUT all blood-bloody americans (they’re all blood-bloody) from china, and sever all economic, and cultural and civil links with washington.
And, and, and, and immediately, quickly, speedily, without even bothering to sleep at all, deploy a nuke arsenal to space.
Because the goebbellian false-narrative blood-bloody people understand one and only one language – the language of force.
Thermonuclear force, what else.
What else do you think.
David N. Tate
August 8, 2025 at 11:54 am
This article is misleading. We need to review history in order to understand how we got here. First, Taiwan is actually the Chinese Province of Formosa. Imperial China governed Formosa for hundreds of years. The Republic of China (RoC) overturned the last Quing Emperor, Puyi in 1905. This precipitated decades of civil conflict, the rise of warlords, and a civil war between the RoC and the Chinese Communist Party. The Chinese Communists won the civil war in 1949. The RoC was able to retreat to Formosa.
The RoC actually held the Chinese seat on the UN Security Council through 1971. In that year the UN asked the RoC to leave and accepted the Peoples Republic as the government of China and to hold the seat on the Security Council. It was during this period that the RoC started referring to themselves as Taiwan.
The Carter Administration moved the US embassy from Taipei to Beijing and accepted the “One China Policy” and “Peaceful Reunification Policy.” Every US presidential administration adopted these policies toward Formosa. It is a province of China. The RoC and “Taiwanese” government are vestiges of the Chinese Civil War from 1949.
The Republic of China is not now a treaty ally of the United States. The Republic of China did not support the United States in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, or other conflict.
The United States can meet its national security goals with it’s current structure in South Korea, Japan, Okinawa, Australia, Singapore, and Guam. The Republic of China is not critical to US foreign policy or national security