Key Points and Summary – A ceasefire between Israel and Iran, personally announced by President Donald Trump on Monday evening, appears to have collapsed less than 24 hours after it began, and already seems back on again.
-After declaring a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE,” Trump took to Truth Social again on Tuesday morning, frantically urging Israel to call back its planes and not drop more bombs, indicating a major violation had occurred.
-An audibly frustrated Trump later told reporters both sides “don’t know what the f— they’re doing,” and that he was “not happy with Israel” for dropping a “load of bombs” after the deal was made.
-The chaotic breakdown undermines Trump’s efforts to quickly end the conflict.
The Israel-Iran Ceasefire That May, or May Not, Hold
Donald Trump wanted a course of events to take place, following the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear sites on Saturday: For the nuclear sites to be destroyed, along with them any nuclear ambitions for Iran. And more notably, after limited retaliation on a U.S. base in the Middle East, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, one that does not lead to a protracted war or continuing U.S. involvement in the region.
Maybe it would even lead to Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize.
After a few days, it looked like Trump’s dream scenario might play out that way. But now, the ceasefire doesn’t appear to be holding. Or, maybe it will?
Per the Associated Press, Israel has accused Iran of launching missiles after the ceasefire began, which Iran has denied. Israeli Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich went on to declare on X that “Tehran will tremble.”
“The 12-Day War”
Trump, on Truth Social on Monday night, announced the ceasefire part.
“ It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE,” Trump declared at 6:00 pm. Washington time, sharing that “officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World.”
Trump, it would appear, liked the sound of the phrase “12-day war,” one exactly twice the length of the Six-Day War in 1967.
According to the New York Times, the announcement took Trump’s own officials by surprise. The report said that Qatar had helped to mediate the agreement, and neither Iran or Israel confirmed their agreement until hours later.
But by Tuesday morning, the ceasefire was in doubt.
“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran,” Trump said on Truth Social of an Israeli mission that appeared to launch after the agreed-upon ceasefire. “All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave’ to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect! Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.”
“ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!,” Trump said in another post, shortly before that.
Also, while Pakistan had nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, they pulled the nomination just a day later.
“They Don’t Know What the F—- They’re Doing”
America Is Angry that the Ceasefire Looks Shaky
In front of reporters Tuesday morning, Trump accused both Israel and Iran of breaking the ceasefire.
“You know what we have? We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f*** they’re doing,” Trump said as he prepared to get on a helicopter, using a rare f-bomb while talking to the media. It also recalled comments Trump made about Russia and Ukraine last month, about the difficulty of delivering a ceasefire between two countries that have been battling for a long time.
“Israel, as soon as we made the deal, they came out and they dropped a load of bombs, the likes of which I’ve never seen before, the biggest load that we’ve seen. I’m not happy with Israel,” Trump added, using a phrase, “I’m not happy with Israel,” that might have been political dynamite had it been used by any other president in recent history.
What’s Next in Iran?
At a time when Trump’s coalition is very much split over the attack on Iran, a protracted conflict in the Middle East is probably the last thing he wants.
After all, protracted Middle East entanglements have essentially ruined multiple American presidencies- and Trump has spent multiple presidential campaigns promising to avoid getting into such wars, while predicting that his opponents, Democratic and Republican, would launch them.
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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