Key Points and Summary – Despite the recent US “Operation Midnight Hammer” strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, President Donald Trump is likely not seeking a full-scale war, an outcome the American public strongly opposes.
-A recent YouGov poll found that 60% of Americans are against US military involvement.
-Trump’s actions, while aggressive, are likely a form of coercive diplomacy aimed at forcing a non-nuclear deal, not a prelude to a ground invasion.
-The administration has repeatedly stated it wants to avoid a wider conflict, a position supported by Trump’s own “no new wars” rhetoric and the significant political risks of an unpopular war ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Americans Don’t Want War With Iran – But Does Trump?
A YouGov poll conducted last week found that 60% of Americans oppose U.S. military involvement in Iran, compared to just 16% who support it. The survey’s findings, along with those taken after the U.S. conducted historic strikes against Iran’s three main nuclear facilities this past weekend, make it clear that the American people do not want war with Iran.
But what about President Trump?
The survey also came before Iran retaliated to the United States’ B-2 bomber strikes, launching missiles at the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. The retaliatory attack, foreshadowed by warnings from Iran, suggests two things: first, that this could be a deliberate offramp for both sides to step back from escalation; and second, that there is currently no indication of an imminent attack on U.S. soil by conventional military means. Though, the risk of terror attacks on U.S. soil remains, and Tehran has already issued threats to that effect.
So far, the Trump administration has made it clear that it does not seek a full-scale war with Iran. Throughout his 2024 campaign, Trump repeatedly promised no new wars in the Middle East and vowed not to deploy American troops on the ground. So far, he has neither broken that promise nor indicated plans to do so.
On June 18, just days before the strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump said that he was not inclined to strike Iran, but added he was prepared to act if necessary. “I’m not looking to fight,” Trump said. It was one of several recent statements in which the president explicitly distances himself from war with Iran.
Vice President J.D. Vance echoed that message on June 22, telling NBC that the administration had “no interest in boots on the ground.”
“We do not want to protract this or build this out any more than it’s already been built out. We want to end their nuclear program, and then we want to talk to the Iranians about a long-term settlement here,” Vance said.
Beyond the official statements, there are reasons to believe the Trump administration will refrain from allowing the conflict to escalate into a full-scale war – among them, Trump’s legacy and the 2026 midterms. Triggering a deeply unpopular war would be politically costly for the Republicans.
Trump presumably knows this, too. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted June 21-23 found that the president’s approval rating fell one point from earlier in the month, dropping to 41% with 57% disapproval.
What Constitutes A War?
For some observers, the recent strikes on Iran already amount to war – regardless of whether American troops ever set foot on Iranian soil.
President Trump has drawn criticism from across the political spectrum. Prominent Republicans like Rep. Thomas Massie and former Fox News host Tucker Carlson have condemned the strikes as reckless military aggression, while Democrats have voiced similar concerns.
But behind some of this opposition lies a deeper issue: America’s support of Israel, and the vocal anti-Israel sentiment growing on the right and already deeply entrenched in Democrat thinking.
To many Democrats, targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is tantamount to entering Israel’s long-running conflict with the Islamic Republic. To some Republicans, Israel’s right to exist should not compel the United States to take military action when it is threatened. The underlying message from the Trump administration, however, is not that the U.S. is risking war for Israel, but that these strikes have been on the cards for decades precisely because a nuclear Iran is not just a threat to Israel, but to the United States, too.
For war to occur now, it would require a clear and direct escalation beyond what we have seen so far.
That escalation could come in the form of a retaliation from Iran. Well, that already happened, and it was a deliberate dud. Tehran informed the United States and Gulf states that the attack was coming, allowing the Al Udeid air base to be evacuated and air defenses to be prepared to intercept incoming missiles.
It might also come in the form of a serious strike against Israel that violates international law so badly that the United States is compelled to intervene. But Israel has far more advanced military equipment than Iran, and Tehran knows at this point that Trump isn’t bluffing when he says he’s willing to intervene when necessary.
Or, it could mean regime change – and while the U.S. president has suggested that regime change wouldn’t be a bad thing for Iran, he has not floated the idea of deploying U.S. troops to help facilitate it.
Until that changes, it’s difficult to conclude – even in the aftermath of the B-2 strikes – that President Trump is seeking war with Iran.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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June 24, 2025 at 7:54 am
Sixty percent of americans don’t want war with iran, but traditionally, US presidents don’t care a hoot about what americans think.
In may 1940, fdr shifted the US pacific fleet to hawaii from its base at san diego over the objections of james otto richardson who thought the move invited war with japan.
In 1945, harry truman rejected the claim the US was starting a nuclear arms race with the USSR with the use of atomic bombs against japan.
Japan was already in its knees and just flattening the imperial palace with conventional bombs was all that was needed to end the war.
But the US president chose to use the long hard route. Which later led to over sixty nuclear tests being conducted on the marshall islands which had never offended the US in any manner.
Today, the overwhelming majority of americans don’t now that their country is in the hands of the deep state.
The deep state or the shadow agency is made up of officials and hidden bigshots from the think tanks, US congress, intellgence circles, military ranks, state dept, wall street players and media moguls.
They are the ones in real control of america. Who cares what americans think.