Three years into the war in Ukraine, the conflict continues to extract tremendous human costs.
Some estimates assess Russian losses may be nearing 1 million dead and wounded.
Yet Russia remains in Ukraine and the fighting continues.
The important question is how much has Russia lost in this war – and how long can it continue fighting?
Ukraine War: Which Casualty Figures are Reliable?
Casualty counts in Ukraine vary widely depending on the source. But in general it is estimated that around 150,000-250,000 Russians have been killed, with around 600,000 wounded. On the Ukrainian side, estimates are more inconsistent, but usually work out to some 60,000-100,000 killed, with around 400,000 wounded.
It is impossible to truly know how many people have been killed and wounded in this war. The possibility that the figures have been inflated for propaganda purposes is high. For sake of argument, let us assume that the Russians have taken around 700,000 total casualties, which is probably the most accurate estimate, and assess Russia’s ability to continue the war.
Sustaining Russia’s Military Capacity
The high casualty rates have undoubtedly strained Russia’s military resources. Historically, prolonged conflicts with high casualty rates can drain the availability of experienced soldiers and force a reliance on less-trained recruits, which can diminish combat effectiveness. For instance, during World War II, when the Soviet Union suffered immense losses, it had to sustain its war effort through mass mobilization and significant sacrifices.
In Ukraine, Russia is reliant on its professional army and volunteers. Despite having an immense pool of conscripts, Russia has remained hesitant to send them to Ukraine, likely due to the potential political disaster that mobilization would cause. While Russia has been able to shoulder its losses so far, it can only continue for so long at its current attrition rate before social unrest takes hold.
Cracks in the Economy
The economic ramifications of the war are another critical factor in determining how much longer Russia can sustain its military campaign. The conflict has led to severe economic sanctions from Western countries, which have targeted key sectors of the Russian economy, including energy, finance, and technology. These sanctions have restricted Russia’s access to international markets and financial systems, leading to a contraction of its economy.
In practice, however, while sanctions have isolated Russia from much of the international community, thus making it difficult for them to acquire crucial electronics, the Russian economy has found many workarounds. Russia has significantly strengthened its ties with China, Iran, and other nations that remain neutral or hostile to the West. This has spared Russia’s economy from the death spiral that Western policymakers envisioned. While the economy has still had its fair share of troubles, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government has been diligent in working to soften the economic impact of the war.
The Russian Military is Growing
Despite the casualties, the Russian military seems to be growing, rather than shrinking. According to various sources, Putin ordered the size of the Russian army to be increased to 1.5 million active servicemen – 2.38 million when conscripts are included. According to NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, Christopher Cavoli, growth is not limited to servicemen. “They have expanded their capability to produce some things – artillery shells, cruise missiles – tremendously, and they are producing some things, such as one-way attack drones, in prodigious numbers that they weren’t even producing at all before the war,” Cavoli remarked before Congress. Not only is Russia able to cope with its manpower losses, but its also able to cope with its material losses as well.
Russia Still has the Manpower Advantage
Looking at the total prewar population of both states, it’s clear who has the advantage in potential military personnel. Russia’s prewar population was estimated at around 142 million people in 2021. Ukraine’s, on the other hand, was around 43 million people. What this means is that Russia has many more bodies to throw at the conflict than Ukraine does. With this advantage, Russia is more than happy to slowly wear down the Ukrainian armed forces until they fold.
International support has been an important lifeline for Ukraine throughout the war, but it too has its limits. After three years of war, Ukraine is largely reliant on its western partners for ammo, intelligence, and equipment. However, Western supplies are finite. I have alluded in some articles to the poor state of NATO’s defense industries and how they have struggled to keep up with Ukraine’s demands. More important, the U.S., Ukraine’s biggest supporter, has been wavering in its support, threatening to walk away entirely. The longer the war drags on, the more it will hurt Ukraine’s allies as well. The U.S. walking away would leave a huge hole in Ukraine’s capabilities, one that Europe cannot hope to fill anytime soon.
Can Russia Keep This Up?
Russia took a gamble the moment it entered Ukraine. However, all things considered, it was a pretty safe bet. Russia has a larger population pool to draw from than Ukraine does. Additionally, Russia has a mature industrial base that allows them to repair and replace equipment losses, more so than Ukraine, and even NATO, does. Even if the casualty figures are reliable, Ukraine still has a long and bloody fight ahead before Russia crumbles.
Russia’s population is finite. Its resources are also far from unlimited. Keeping up with its current rate of attrition will have detrimental effects in the long term. However, Russia is still in a much better position to keep fighting than Ukraine is.
To repurpose an old mantra, Ukraine may have the watches, but Russia has all the time.
About the Author:
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
Europe’s Ukraine War in Focus
