Key Points and Summary – The United States and its key European allies have issued a high-stakes ultimatum to Iran, demanding a new nuclear deal be reached by the end of August.
-If Tehran fails to comply, the Western powers have agreed to trigger the “snapback” mechanism, which would reimpose all pre-2015 UN sanctions.
-The move, timed to preempt Russia’s upcoming presidency of the UN Security Council, has been met with a defiant counter-threat from Iran, which has warned it will respond by enriching uranium to 90% weapons-grade levels and potentially exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Iran Issues Nuclear Threat
Iran has issued new nuclear threats against the West in response to reports that the United States has agreed with European allies to trigger a “snapback” mechanism that would re-implement pre-2015 sanctions against Iran.
This week, Iran threatened to begin enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels and withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if Western governments reimpose United Nations sanctions that were lifted after the signing of the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
A report from Axios this week confirmed that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio agreed during a phone call with the foreign ministers of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom to trigger the snapback mechanism if Iran refuses to come to the table.
The Western officials reportedly expect Iran to either agree to a new deal or demonstrate its willingness to engage in good faith negotiations before the end of August. Failure to comply would result in the automatic reimposition of wide-ranging sanctions. The short deadline is believed to have been agreed over fears that Russia, a key Iranian ally that will assume the United Nations Security Council presidency for a month in October, may interfere.
Following its latest threats, Iran now faces wide-ranging sanctions on its arms trade, nuclear program, and financial system.
On Wednesday, July 16, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued additional threats on X.
In a series of posts, Khamenei alleged that Israel was incapable of defending itself and called on the United States for assistance, claimed that Iran was not “seeking a war,” wrongly claimed that its retaliatory strike against the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar was a “major blow,” and promised additional strikes may be forthcoming.
“The center [Al Udeid Air Base] that was attacked by Iran was an extremely important US center in the region. The strike was a major blow, but it’s definitely possible to inflict an even greater blow on the US and others,” Khamenei said.
Can Iran Follow Through?
At this stage, it seems unlikely that Iran is prepared to agree to a new nuclear deal with the U.S. and Europe. Iranian officials have already confirmed on multiple occasions that the nation’s nuclear program will be rebuilt.
And, while Iran has claimed that diplomacy with the United States is still possible, the latest round of threats indicates that Tehran is far from accepting any deal that restricts its ability to enrich uranium.
Following through on threats to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels is no easy feat, however – especially in the wake of U.S. strikes on its main nuclear facilities.
To begin enriching uranium again, Iran would need intact enrichment facilities, centrifuges, access to uranium feedstock, and the technical expertise to operate them. After the U.S. and Israeli strikes, most of Iran’s above-ground infrastructure was destroyed. Underground facilities were also severely damaged, and while it’s possible that some underground systems may still function, they are likely buried beneath rubble.
The International Atomic Energy Agency believes that Iran had 900 lb of 60% enriched uranium at the time of the strikes, and most intelligence so far points to the likelihood that the uranium is buried beneath the rubble. It’s why Rubio and European foreign ministers are expected to pressure Iran to recover and hand over the enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief.
Iran Nuclear Program Reboot?
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed that efforts to recover nuclear material and technology are already underway.
During an interview with CBS News published on July 1, Araqchi said that U.S. strikes “seriously and heavily damaged” the Fordow nuclear site – Iran’s primary uranium enrichment facility that housed advanced centrifuge cascades.
The Pentagon estimates that the strikes have set Iran’s nuclear program back by up to two years. But with key facilities destroyed and recovery efforts still underway, the real question is whether Tehran can rebuild quickly enough to act on its threats – before Israel or the United States strikes again.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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