Key Points and Summary – Canada’s 88-jet F-35 deal is under review amid spiking costs, pilot shortages, and delayed base upgrades, with IOC slipping toward 2031.
-The message is straightforward: Ottawa is clearly unhappy with the Joint Strike Fighter.
U.S. Air Force Maj. Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team commander, flies an F-35 assigned to the 356th Fighter Generation Squadron during the 2023 Arctic Lightning Air Show at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, July 21, 2023. The 2023 airshow theme was celebrating 50 years of women in military aviation.(U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Kaitlyn Ergish)
-Ottawa has legally committed to 16 aircraft, but speculation ranges from halving the buy to splitting with Saab’s Gripen.
-Washington warns that diverging from the F-35 risks NORAD interoperability, while a GAO report on late 2024 deliveries and over-budget Block 4 upgrades clouds the calculus.
-Industry ties complicate any pivot, and domestic politics with a tariff-strained U.S. add pressure.
-A formal defense review due by summer’s end will guide Prime Minister Carney’s final call. NORAD allies await Ottawa’s decision.
Canada Has a Big F-35 Fighter Call Coming Soon
In 2022, the government of then-Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reached an agreement to purchase 88 F-35s to replace Canada’s fleet of CF-18 Hornets.
However, in the ensuing years, the cost of the deal grew, with a government report in June stating that the effort was plagued by “skyrocketing costs, a shortage of trained pilots, and a lack of critical infrastructure.” The price tag by that point had swelled to $27.7 billion, from the originally announced $19 billion. And while bases were expected to be up and running by 2028, that date has now been pushed back to 2031.
In March, Canadian Defense Minister Bill Blair told the CBC that the government was considering alternatives to the F-35. Blair was reappointed to that post after Canada’s election, but by May had been dropped as part of a Cabinet reshuffle.
Newsweek reported in May about Canada’s “F-35 nightmare,” noting that Prime Minister Mark Carney had talked on the campaign trail about “alternatives” to the existing deal.
“Does Ottawa do away with billions of dollars of investment and all the work to prepare its air force for the U.S.-made F-35s, or does it continue with the planned purchase?” Newsweek asked of Canada’s “dilemma.”
Canada, to date, has made the “legal commitment” to buy 16 of the jets, Reuters reported.
Down to 44?
This led to speculation that Canada could decide to cut the order in half, although a Canadian defense review in early August made the strong case that the country should go ahead with buying all 88 of the F-35s. The alternative, per that report, would have entailed buying the jets from a different party, likely at additional cost.
“We are committed to procuring what the air force needs, while ensuring economic benefits for Canadians and the responsible use of taxpayer dollars,” Defense Minister David McGuinty said in that August report.
Now the U.S. is warning that its neighbor to the north will suffer consequences should it back out of the fighter-jet deal.
According to the Ottawa Citizen, the formal military review will be released by the end of the summer, which is technically just a few days away.
“The F-35 review is still expected to be finalized by the end of summer, which, in this case, refers to the end of the calendar summer,” Department of National Defense spokesperson Alex Tétreault told the newspaper.
The review was ordered by Carney as a response to belligerence from U.S. President Donald Trump. The final decision will rest with the prime minister.
Defence Industry Europe reported in late August that Stephen Fuhr, Canada’s Secretary of State for Defense Procurement, had traveled to Texas to meet with Lockheed Martin. The report stated that the F-35s were among the topics raised in the meeting.
“Canada is committed to engaging with global partners to secure the capabilities our military needs, while creating lasting opportunities for Canadian industry and workers,” Fuhr said in a statement to the Globe and Mail.
According to the report, Fuhr recently visited Sweden and met with Saab executives.
The Ambassador Disapproves
The top American diplomat in Canada has made it clear that a move away from the F-35 purchase would not be treated kindly.
U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra said earlier this year that a cut in the order could threaten the NORAD alliance.
“If Canadians are flying one airplane, we’re flying another airplane; it’s no longer interchangeable,” Hoekstra, the former Congressman, told CTV in May. “And so, that might even threaten NORAD.”
JAS 39 Gripen over the Ocean. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The ambassador, per a later August interview, also appeared worried that Canada might split the order between the F-35 and Saab’s Swedish JAS 39 Gripen.
“Do they want F-35s? Do they want some other product? That’s your decision to make, but you can’t afford both of them,” Hoekstra said in August on a podcast.
The ambassador went on to describe the ongoing review as an “irritant.”
What Does the GAO Report Mean?
In another development that could affect Canada’s decision, the U.S. Government Accountability Office report in early September found that every F-35 fighter delivery in 2024 was late.
“After nearly 20 years of aircraft production… the F-35 program continues to overpromise and underdeliver,” the GAO said in its conclusion section. “In addition, the F-35 contractors continue to have challenges with fully meeting contract requirements and the program rewards them for it.”
The Ottawa Citizen reported that this could affect Canada’s decision, especially because the report referred to the Block 4 version, which the GAO report specifically stated is both over budget and years behind schedule.
Per Defence Industry Europe, the defense industries of the U.S. and Canada are closely intertwined, with about 40 percent of the defense firms in Canada being subsidiaries of American firms.
The U.S. vs. Canada
The review follows some of the most bitter saber-rattling between the U.S. and Canada in memory, following Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency.
The president began speaking frequently about wanting to make Canada the 51st state, including bringing up the idea while meeting with Carney.
Trump has not made such statements recently, although he has continued to push tariffs on Canada. And while Trump’s belligerence towards Canada has been credited with helping Carney win office, the prime minister has struggled with how to deal with his neighbor to the south. The two sides have yet to reach a trade deal.
JAS 39 Gripen. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
According to a New York Times story on Monday, the prime minister is “facing early signs of trouble as he discovers that being elected on an anti-Trump message does not mean you can govern on one, too.”
A Politico story this month noted that Carney has pursued a “buy Canadian” strategy to deal with the tariffs and other difficulties.
“Our relationship with the United States, so essential for so many industries, was once one of our greatest strengths, and in many cases, in certain sectors, has become a vulnerability,” the prime minister said.
While the verdict is likely coming soon, the F-35 question was not addressed in either story.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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Swamplaw Yankee
September 17, 2025 at 2:11 am
Hello OP-ED world! Wake up! The USA has another neighbour.
Canada of 1939 sent it’s lads and lasses to fight, die and be maimed for the Yankee Yelloow Bellieess of 1939-1940-1941 and 1942. How did Canada mange without those brave heroic Yank Yellow Bellies? I missed the Blackbuster Hollywood Movie.
Wait. In 1939 the USA cuddled for warmth with its amigo to the south. Yes, Amigo South sent a huge army to fight Stalin/Hitler in 1939-1940-1941 while mariachi playing the Bolshevik – NAZI might into submission.
So, Mexico of 2025 has legally ordered twice the amount of F-35 air frames as underpopulated CANADA. Mexico’s Cartels are demanding to triple that order so that F-35 air frames can be supplied FREE to Ireland, Iceland and Greenland. The Mexican Cartels recognize that these countries are vastly under-numbered in the business figures done with the Cartels.
NORAD leaders are livid as Xi-Putin Have installed attack missile flight ways that avoid Canada altogether. The attack missiles come over Mexico into mainland USA. Those slimy enemies are so Anti-Canadian as they want to avoid Canada as a missile flight route.
The USA MSM is livid as Congress demands that Mexico stop the purchase of so many F-35 air frames. The Gringo Lobby has threatened Mexico with World Court action if it continues to cough up Cartel Cash for 10x the number of F-35 air frames the puny Canadians are legally purchasing!
Just because the Mexicans armed forces over came the Bolshevik and Nazi forces in WW2 is no reason to favour Mexico with so many F-35 air frames purchases in 2025.
Just as the MAGA POTUS elite shoulder the huge burden of fighting off the combined Xi/Putin armed attack on Ukraine, then in the same way Mexico paid huge taxes to make the USA much safer as Mexico did so much to win WW2 for the allies. Why are Americans so unfair? -30-
Goofball
September 17, 2025 at 5:20 pm
It went from it will affect norad interoperability to may affect norad interoperability mighty fast.
It’s been proven Canada does not need American hardware for norad defense at all. Throw pie in King dotards face.
Sohail
September 17, 2025 at 5:46 pm
That’s $318 million per F35 for Canada. You have a better idea. Canada should start ACPAC (American Canada Public Affairs Committee) and start funding US congressman’s, Senators, Presidents, and US media to have favourable view of Canada. This way, Canada will get jet fighters raider systems, bombs, and diplomatic cover from US perpetually. Every elected leader in US will have to pray under the wailing CN tower. Canada will never be afraid of US again.
Rolo Polo
September 18, 2025 at 1:25 pm
Screw the USA the f35 are just to expensive to run, plus all the repairs and upgrades the plane has to go to the USA, not very good. The Griffin will be made in Canada giving lots of jobs, and any upgrades are done in Canada, plus the Saab plane can use a road way to land and refuel, rearm by as little as 3 people, plus the Griffin can fly in cold weather, a lot longer than the f-35 (by a lot, it’s not as delicate f-35). Plus all the cost over runs has added many billions of dollars, and still going up, there are many problems with the f-35, it’s not as good as the USA says. So dump all of the rest f-35 save “my” money, buy the Saab Griffins. Plus in a air war games the Griffin was the only one who found the f35 it also shot it down. So since pres trumpedo has alienated the whole world so they must pay there stupidity and should shut up, and suck it up. Trumpedo has already said that he would not help Canada in protecting Canada’s North, before this lastest bull poop. Let’s get together with Saab planes, would be the for Canada. Go Canada
Allen
September 18, 2025 at 1:32 pm
Why can’t we just join in USA and make North America one whole big country? That could save lots of taxpayer’s money. No need to pay for weapons and no more tariffs.
Stuart
September 18, 2025 at 6:59 pm
Drop the deal. Ottawa has gone full on commie.
I bet they’d give a couple to China to be copied….
James
September 18, 2025 at 7:22 pm
Why there’re so many illiterate Canadian tards frequent this site comment section? You are calling for future domestic manufacturing of Gen 4 fighters when the rest of the world move to Gen 6. What’s the point of easy to operate if you’re just gonna get shot down BVR by J-35 anyway. Acting like Canada is a poor 3rd world country that can’t afford modern doctrines. No, Canada MIC is not self-subtainable.
Frankie go's to Hollywood
September 18, 2025 at 10:18 pm
I can see both sides point. We promised according to this article and didn’t do as promised. Once and awhile is expected, more is a trend. Now is the plane worth waiting for? Well that’s been proven several times over already. Several years ago the f15 came with the best and strongest radar known. It went up against 8 f16s and they all lost to the f15. Flash forward and the f15 with its updates still have one of the most advanced radar in the air. 5 went up with a f35 and lost. Not one of them seen it. With that being said, patience runs out with anyone and eventually its better to have a inferior plane than no plane at all that’s Leaps and bounds better.
Most of the problems are soon as an update is given and they start doing the ecu updates, before they are done they have new updates. The f35 is getting better and better.
Ro whomever above commented about American yellow bellies, without us you would be speaking Russian. Never seen america back out of a military fight. What happened in ww2? Japan dragged us into a war that at that time didn’t involve us.as the famous Japanese navy officer said, I’m afraid we just woke a sleeping giant. History will show whatever country telling it from their point of view. But from all points of view the war shifted soon as we came. Don’t let Trumps big mouth make you think we all think like that. We always have looked at Canada as our cousins. Different nation but united in the people.
The joke is the only thing ever to come from Canada is maple syrup.
I myself have tremendous love for Canadians. Always nice and respectful the ones I met in my lifetime.
Fred Scribner
September 18, 2025 at 11:24 pm
NORAD interoperability? The US flys F22’s out of Elmendorf Alaska in the intercept role not F35’s, and before that they were using F15’s, while up until now we’ve used CF18’sand before that we used CF 101 Voodoos, so far it’s never been a problem.
mike dubensky
September 20, 2025 at 3:35 pm
Canada as a nation has for decades neglected or national defence and I am supportive of this governments pledge to rectify that. But if the war in Ukraine has taught the world anything it is that you can do far more damage with a thousand low cost drones than you can with one high cost aircraft. If we are to buy new fighter jets it ought to be from a company willing to invest in Canada, and build in Canada. Unlike the F-35 deal which does nothing for the Canadian economy and workforce, the Saab offer covers both of those areas.