Key Points and Summary – Russia is courting India with a Make-in-India offer to co-produce the Su-57 “Felon,” leveraging tech transfer and jobs as U.S.–India ties strain over tariffs and oil.
-Washington is counter-pitching the F-35, but U.S. export rules rule out Indian assembly.
Su-57 Felon from Russian Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-A mixed F-35/Su-57 fleet is unlikely; Delhi will weigh offsets, sanctions risk, interoperability with the U.S., and urgency for a stealth edge over Pakistan and China.
-Rostec is reportedly assessing India’s Su-30MKI line for possible Su-57 work.
-For Moscow, the risk is exporting sensitive know-how; for Modi, the prize is sovereign capability—and leverage over both suppliers. Timing and training demands also argue for caution.
Russia’s Su-57 Felon Fighter Could Be Made in India
India has an annoying habit of being non-aligned or neutral when it comes to the rivalry between the United States and Russia. It was a significant aspect of the non-alignment movement during the Cold War.
India is not above playing off the Americans and Russians to create a strategic advantage in military affairs on its own terms.
President Donald Trump is mad at India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Indian leader is steadfast in his hunger for Russian oil. This angers Trump as he wishes the Indians would buy American energy products instead.
Trump has also imposed high tariffs on India, putting the U.S.-India relationship in jeopardy.
Su-57 Felon Fighter from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russian Fighter Plane Diplomacy Is Effective Too
In steps the Russians. Vladimir Putin would love to pick off India and bring the country into a more friendly strategic partnership with Moscow. This includes the practice of what I call “fighter plane diplomacy.”
It means making some of Russia’s best airplanes, such as the Su-57 Felon stealth fighter jet, available to India.
To sweeten the pot, there are even preliminary talks for the Russians to partner with Modi to build the Su-57 in India. However, the Indians are not known for advanced aviation manufacturing, but they do have a commercial strategy called “Make In India.” This economic policy is a fledgling effort, as the country is more dependent on consumer information technology services and products. Still, it does give Modi confidence that one day his country could become an industrial powerhouse.
India Would Love Some Advanced Manufacturing
The Su-57 deal has not come to fruition, but the Indians are glad to be in the mix to indigenously produce such an advanced airplane. There would need to be an ample amount of training to enable Indian engineers and technicians to utilize the Russian technology transfer effectively. This would create high-paying and stable jobs in India and spur economic development.
Pakistan Wouldn’t Be Happy
One country that is watching closely is Pakistan. India’s archenemy would be fearful of a modern, stealth jet being produced so close to its borders. Pakistan got the best of India in a recent aerial engagement that involved more than 100 fighter jets. India is still stung from that dogfight, and it would love to get experience at producing a stealth airplane.
Russia is concerned that India could leverage the expertise gained from manufacturing the Su-57 and its knowledge of advanced aerospace technology to develop other fighters, particularly stealth aircraft, utilizing Russian know-how.
Su-57 Felon Artist Image> Image Credit: Screenshot.
The Su-57 manufacturing deal is not fully baked yet, as the Russians look at how the long-term effects on their defense industrial base will affect the work they have done on stealth flight.
Don’t Forget the Persuasion of Trump’s Diplomatic Efforts
Meanwhile, Trump is conducting his own fighter plane diplomacy. He wants India to buy the F-35 Lightning II and has made his case to Modi for that to happen. This is another way the Indians are playing hard to get, and that they may strike a better deal with the Russians. There is no way Lockheed Martin would agree to produce the F-35 in India.
What if India were to acquire both the F-35 and Su-57? Pakistan would be in crisis mode. That kind of deal would be unlikely, but it is something that Modi has likely pondered since getting such a military advantage over Pakistan would be irresistible. India would need to train pilots for both fighters and maintain ground crews capable of servicing the various airplanes. It is more likely that the order would be one jet or the other.
Advice for Modi
If I were advising Modi, I would tell the Indian leader to let the process play out and see which country gives India the better deal. Obviously, Modi would choose the Russian offer of Su-57 production in his country. But he can also communicate to the Americans that the F-35 deal would still be in play. There is no hurry for these negotiations. Modi could also say that tariffs on India must be reduced before his air force buys F-35s.
There is precedent for the Indian production of Su-57s. India already makes a licensed version of the Su-30MKI fighter jet.
Rostec is analyzing the factory where the Su-30MKI is made to see if it could be repurposed to manufacture the Su-57. This might be the facility that Modi points to as the answer to the Su-57 plans in India.
Either way, India wants a stealth airplane. The dogfight with Pakistan was an embarrassment and showed that Indian Rafales can succumb to long-range missiles fired from Chinese-made fighters. That cannot happen again. With the F-35 or Su-57, India could enjoy an on-paper advantage against the Pakistani air force. So fighter plane diplomacy with both the Americans and the Russians will be ever-important in the coming months.
I could see the Su-57 being made in India. The F-35 would be an excellent choice, but Trump is not Modi’s favorite ally at this time. Russia can capitalize on this breakdown in U.S.-India relations and shift its diplomatic focus to the Indians. Russia also needs some hard currency to pay for the war in Ukraine. It could just sell the Felon to the Indians without the contingency to produce it there.
The Indians are playing this one like it is still the Cold War between the United States and the Russians. The biggest challenge is to eclipse Pakistan in military might and capability. That means stealth airplanes are needed, and the Su-57 and F-35 would be good choices to meet Indian strategic objectives. Look for more fighter plane diplomacy among all three countries.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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