Key Points and Summary – More than a week after US and Israeli strikes, Iran is assessing what it calls “seriously damaged” nuclear facilities, and while not ruling out future talks with the U.S., a spokesperson stated they are not “very soon.”
-The conflict’s human cost is disputed, with Iran claiming 935 of its citizens have been killed, while the Washington-based Human Rights Activists group puts the number at 1,190.
-Despite speculation about regime change, the Iranian government remains intact, with hardliners now criticizing any potential negotiations with the West and satellite imagery showing activity at the damaged Fordow nuclear site.
Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Did Take Serious Damage Afterall
A week and a half after the U.S. struck Iran’s nuclear facilities, following nearly two weeks of bombing by Israel, Iran is assessing the damage and weighing how best to respond, according to an Associated Press story published on Tuesday.
The story cited public comments by Iranian government spokesman Fatemeh Mohajerani in a press briefing, which included the acknowledgment that the sites at Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz were “seriously damaged” by the U.S. strikes, although the White House, at various times since the strikes, has used the term “obliterated,” while leaving no ambiguity.
The spokesman added that Iran is not ruling out more talks with the U.S.
“No date (for U.S. talks) is announced, and it’s not probably very soon, but a decision hasn’t been made in this field,” Mohajerani told the press.
In addition to the strikes on the nuclear sites by both the U.S. and Israel, Israel assassinated around a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists and struck Iran’s air defenses and ballistic missile capabilities.
A Disputed Death Toll
As a result of that, Iran has claimed a death toll from the strikes of 935 “Iranian citizens,” including 38 children and 102 women.
“The enemy aimed to change the country’s circumstances by assassinating military commanders and scientists, intending to spread fear and exert pressure,” Iranian judiciary spokesman Asghar Jahangir also said this week.
However, the Washington-based Human Rights Activists group, per the AP, estimated the death toll at 1,190, including 436 civilians, with more than 4,000 people reported wounded.
The AP also reported on satellite reports of activity at the Fordow nuclear facility after the U.S. attacks, although this report cited satellite images from Planet Labs PBC, rather than Maxar, although both found that “trucks could be seen in the images, as well as at least one crane and an excavator at tunnels on the site.”
And AP reported that “hardliners within Iran” are “ increasingly criticizing any effort at negotiations or cooperation with the West.” One hardline newspaper, meanwhile, said that IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi should be “tried and executed,” should he ever visit Iran.
The Regime Stays
One thing notable, but less commented upon, since the strikes and ceasefire, is that Iran’s regime appears to have remained intact, with little sign that its collapse is imminent.
Trump, after Israel began striking, hinted at regime change in the country, and at one point appeared to threaten to assassinate Iran’s supreme leader in a Truth Social post, although other reports stated that Trump had rejected an Israeli plan to kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah of Iran, declared in June that the end of the Islamic Republic was near.
“Imagine this new Iran,” Pahlavi said, per Politico. “A free and democratic Iran, living at peace with our neighbors, an engine of growth and opportunity.”
However, the idea of regime change being forced from above by the U.S. seems like something from the Bush-Cheney era, the sort of idea that Trump has long rejected since his rise in politics.
And such a regime change would risk resulting in the sort of chaos that followed the U.S. interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. It wouldn’t necessarily result in a liberal, pro-Western democracy, but could instead lead to something much worse.
“Look at the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan… Both countries were unstable for many years,” Hamed Mousavi, associate professor of International Relations at the University of Tehran, told CNN last month, adding that Iran, as a country, is “even more complicated” than those countries.
CNN listed some other possible post-Islamic Republic scenarios.
“One outcome could be that other elements in the Iranian military assume power. They are unlikely to seek diplomatic routes with Israel or the US, but could take a more hawkish approach that sees possession of a nuclear bomb as the only deterrent to more attacks,” the analysis said.
About the Author
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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