Key Points and Summary – Big questions remain about the whereabouts of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile following recent US and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities, according to IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi.
-On Monday, Grossi confirmed that while sites like Fordow were hit, the location of up to 9 tonnes of enriched uranium, including 400 kg of highly-enriched material, is unconfirmed.
-While Israeli intelligence suggests the uranium was not moved beforehand, the possibility remains that it was, or is now buried under rubble.
-This creates a dangerous “cat-and-mouse” game as the world scrambles to locate the material before it can be reconstituted.
Where Are Iran’s Nukes? The ‘Cat-and-Mouse’ Hunt for 9 Tonnes of Uranium
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi said on Monday that big questions remain about the whereabouts of Iran’s 9 tonnes of enriched uranium.
The head of the United Nations atomic agency confirmed that while the Fordow uranium enrichment facility is believed to have been destroyed, the location of as much as 400 kg of highly-enriched uranium is still unconfirmed.
The United States’ historic bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites has since prompted what has been described as a “cat-and-mouse” hunt for the nuclear materials, with Western governments reportedly “scrambling” to determine whether it was moved from the nuclear sites ahead of the strikes.
Olli Heinonen, who served as the top IAEA inspector from 2005 to 2010, also said that the search for the uranium could take some time. Heinonen also predicted a complicated recovery effort at the Iranian sites is forthcoming.
“There could be materials which are inaccessible, distributed under the rubble or lost during the bombing,” Heinonen said, echoing claims made by Vice President J.D. Vance that the uranium is likely buried beneath the rubble in Fordow.
The comments follow claims by Israeli officials that intelligence obtained by spies and intercepted Iranian communications suggest that the uranium was not moved from the site ahead of the strikes.
Intelligence suggests that Tehran focused on fortifying the facility by sealing off entrance points using concrete, and that there was no evidence the uranium was moved from the facility before Trump ordered the surprise bombing campaign.
UN Prioritizes Return to Iran Nuclear Inspections
Speaking to reporters in Vienna after meeting with Austrian government officials last week, Grossi also indicated that his agency was in communication with Tehran about protecting what remains of its nuclear sites.
Grossi confirmed that he had received a letter from the Iranian Foreign Minister that outlined plans to protect what remains of its nuclear materials and equipment.
“They did not get into details what that meant, but clearly that was the implicit meaning of that,” Grossi said, suggesting that some nuclear assets may have survived the strikes.
“So, we can imagine that this material is there,” Grossi also said, adding that his agency needs to “return” to Iran for inspections.
The comments from Iran could well indicate that the enriched uranium was not destroyed.
Alternatively, the letter could suggest that Iran is taking measures to recover uranium buried beneath the rubble, or even that plans are underway to protect nuclear materials that were smuggled out of its facilities before the strikes.
It could be some time before IAEA inspectors enter Iran, however, following moves made by the Iranian parliament to suspend cooperation with the international nuclear agency.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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