As Washington pushes ahead with its latest – and most ambitious – attempt at a deal for peace in Ukraine, European governments are growing increasingly anxious about the shape of the peace that may emerge.
Reports in recent days have described growing concerns about how little power Europe may have to stop whatever deal U.S. President Donald Trump may have planned, with some officials describing the same growing dread about a so-called “ugly deal” struck largely between the U.S. and Russia.
President Donald J. Trump and President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. White House Photo.
At the center of those fears is reportedly President Trump’s drive to secure a swift deal, one that has been described as being guided by “great-power logic.”
Speaking to Reuters, Luuk van Middelaar, the founding director of the Geopolitics think tank, suggested that European leaders are gradually realizing they could be powerless over what is about to happen.
“I get the impression that, slowly, the awareness is sinking in that at some point there will be an ugly deal,” the think tank director said. “Trump clearly wants a deal. What is very uncomfortable for the Europeans…is that he wants a deal according to great-power logic: ‘We’re the U.S., they are Russia, we are big powers.”
The United States is, after all, directly negotiating with Kyiv and preparing for further talks with Moscow, while Europe – which has provided roughly 180 billion Euros in aid to Ukraine over the years – has been excluded from key meetings in recent weeks.
No EU representatives attended the recent U.S. – Ukraine talks in Florida, for example, and allies will ultimately only be observers when Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff meets Vladimir Putin today.
European governments, then, are concerned that a deal will be shaped without them – and that the deal will ultimately not deliver what they believe is essential.
Specifically, Europe may not get a weakened Russia, they may not be able to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and they may not be able to provide the kind of NATO assurances to Ukraine that they would prefer. For Trump, the deal is about securing long-term peace – for Europe, it’s about making a point.
The likelihood at this stage is that any final agreement will ultimately allow Moscow to retain control over Ukrainian territories it has seized by force, even if the borders are not formally withdrawn.
Washington has also not dismissed Russian claims to the rest of the Donbas – including areas it has not yet captured – raising concerns in Europe that there will be major territorial concessions that will permanently reshape Ukraine.
Europe may be worried about an ugly deal, but a question for European leaders might be: are you concerned about an ugly, elongated war?
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York who writes frequently for National Security Journal. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he analyzes and understands left-wing and right-wing radicalization and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
