Key Points – Following news that the US economy shrank 0.3% in Q1 2025, President Trump deflected responsibility in a “Meet the Press” interview, attributing negative aspects to a “Biden Overhang” while claiming credit for any positives.
-This narrative emerged despite the contraction occurring largely during his second term’s initial months.
-Concurrently, multiple polls show significant public disapproval of Trump’s economic handling, with negative ratings widening.
-Recession concerns linger among analysts and the public, partly driven by uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies, setting the stage for the economy’s performance to be a critical factor going forward.
Donald Trump Has a Problem
When of economic data was released last week for the first quarter, it showed that the U.S. economy contracted during that period. The economy shrank at a 0.3 percent annual rate, compared to its 2.4 percent increase in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The first quarter comprised the first three months of the year, for which Donald Trump was president for all of, except for the first 20 days of January. The quarter ended before the tariff chaos and resulting market volatility throughout April, although activity that anticipated the arrival of the tariffs was certainly part of the first quarter data.
Trump was sure to declare, that day, that the blame lay not with him but with his predecessor, Joe Biden. And he continued along those lines in an interview that aired over the weekend on NBC’s Meet the Press.
“I think the good parts are the Trump economy and the bad parts are the Biden economy because he’s done a terrible job,” Trump told NBC’s Kristen Welker in the Sunday interview. “He did a terrible job on everything, from his autopen — which I’m sure he knew nothing about, some of the things he was supposedly signing.”
What Trump said reflected comments in March from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, that “the first quarter is surely Biden, the second quarter is Biden, but starting the third quarter you start to feel some Donald Trump and in the 4th quarter you will feel the power of Donald Trump’s economy.”
Reacting to the Interview
On an MSNBC panel the following day, the panelists had a laugh discussing how Trump differentiated between the parts of the economy that are Biden’s fault, and which are his successes.
Jared Bernstein, who was an economic adviser to the Biden Administration, said on the panel that “my reaction is that if this interview goes well, it’s because of me. And if it goes badly, it’s because of the other panelists.”
Also on the panel, NBC News senior business correspondent Christine Romans used the R-word: Recession. After all, the general definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth, meaning that after Q1, we’re halfway there.
“There’s a big concern about his tariffs and whether they slow growth, and maybe lead to higher inflation,” Romans said on the panel. “And the major banks are really struggling with whether this could be something that, instead of just being slower growth and higher inflation, actually is something really terrible: A recession.”
What the Polls Say
When it comes to polling on Trump’s handling of the economy, none of the news is good for the president.
According to RealClearPolling’s average on that issue, every included poll taken since the start of April has Trump underwater on his handling of the economy, most of them by double-digits, with an average of 41.7 percent approval and 55.2 percent disapproval.
A recent Yahoo News poll has Trump at -14 on the economy, while the most recent Emerson poll has him at -12. The Economist/YouGov poll has Trump at -11, while CBS News has him at -16. Meanwhile, a CNN poll has Trump at -20 on the economy, which is the worst average for him in the survey.
All of those are worse numbers than Trump’s overall approval ratings, on which he remains underwater, but for the most part by single rather than double digits.
It does appear that voters aren’t thinking about Joe Biden right now and see the current economy as Trump’s. How they feel about that economy going forward may very well determine the fate of Trump’s second presidency.
Those are the questions to ask in the coming months: Will the tariff uncertainty continue, or will deals be reached that enshrine some stability? And can Trump succeed in staving off a recession, which Wall Street is clearly still fearing at this point?
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter
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