Key Points and Summary – Following the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has established a new “red line” in Syria, launching major airstrikes on Damascus on July 16 to warn the new government against attacking the Druze minority in the south.
-The strikes, which targeted military headquarters, came after clashes erupted between Druze and other armed groups near Suwayda.
-Israel, with strong domestic support for its Druze population, is now directly intervening to prevent a power vacuum from being filled by extremists.
-The new Syrian leadership’s response to this “Druze test” will be critical for regional stability.
Israel’s Druze Test in Syria
On July 16, the Israel Defense Forces carried out airstrikes in the heart of Damascus. The IDF said it had targeted Syria’s military headquarters and also a military site near the presidential palace, which is on a mountainside overlooking the capital.
Israel’s military intervention in Syria is not new; the IDF has carried out airstrikes in Syria numerous times over the years. However, these strikes differed in magnitude and were designed to send a message to the Syrian government. Israel has warned the Syrian government against attacks on the Druze minority in southern Syria.
The Druze in Syria primarily reside in and around the city of Suwayda, situated approximately 100 miles south of Damascus and north of the Jordanian border. Druze are also a minority group in Israel and Lebanon. In Israel, they serve in the army, and this has led to a sense of support for Druze in Israel. Support for this ethnic group is common across the political spectrum from the left to the right.
Israel’s Evolving Front with Syria
After the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, Israel increased its involvement in Syria. Prior to the regime’s fall, the IDF conducted what it called the “campaign between the wars” in Syria, using precision airstrikes to target Iranian assets in Syria.
This campaign included strikes on air defenses, drone bases, and munitions Iran was trafficking to Hezbollah in Lebanon. There were thousands of strikes during the Syrian civil war, from 2012 to 2024. Things changed when Syrian regime leader Bashar al-Assad fled Damascus. Israel was now concerned that Syrian regime military equipment might fall into the hands of extremist groups. The IDF launched a wave of strikes on December 8 and 9, and Israeli soldiers moved into a buffer zone near the Golan border with Syria.
Since the wave of strikes in December, Israeli officials have demanded the demilitarization of southern Syria near the Israeli border. They have also openly said that Israel will support the Druze. Suwayda, the Druze area, is around 80 miles from the Israeli border.
There are Druze villages that are much closer, just a few hundred meters from the Golan. These Druze villages, such as Khader in Syria, have family connections to Druze who live in the Golan, particularly Druze in the town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-controlled Golan.
Supporting the Druze
As such, the Israeli decision to focus on the Druze in Syria has very real connections to Israel. When Druze in Syria are attacked, the Druze community in Israel will protest and also demand to enter Syria to show support.
This has happened several times since the fall of the Assad regime. The reason for the clashes between members of the Druze community and elements who support the new government in Damascus is complex.
During the Syrian civil war, many Druze sided with the Assad regime due to concerns that the Syrian rebel groups were often too extreme. This is because most rebel groups were made up of Sunni Arabs, and some of them were religious extremists. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that overthrew Assad, previously had links to Al-Qaeda. The group’s leader, Ahmed al-Shara’a, was sanctioned as a terrorist by the US.
However, things have changed quickly. United States President Donald Trump met Shara’a in May. US Envoy Tom Barrack has been energetically working to engage with Damascus. The US, Turkey, Qatar, and many other countries in the region want a stable and successful Syria.
A New Syria
The Druze could play an important role in this new Syria. However, there have been clashes between armed Druze groups and other armed groups in Syria. For instance, on July 13, Bedouin tribesmen in southern Syria clashed with people from Suwayda.
This confrontation led to the government sending security forces toward Suwayda. However, the forces were backed by extremists who set out to attack the Druze. Israel warned the government in Damascus that it would carry out strikes if the clashes didn’t stop. When the clashes escalated and dozens of people were killed, the IDF began striking tanks and armored personnel carriers used by government forces.
By July 14 and 15, things escalated, and Israel was ready to do more. The result was the bombing campaign of July 16 targeting Damascus. This is a major wake-up call to the Syrian authorities. Shara’a has been trying to downplay clashes in Syria and focus on foreign trips. For instance, he was recently in Azerbaijan to discuss ties with the government in Baku. Syria wants energy deals and investment. Shara’a basically prefers to focus on things other than trying to deal with domestic tensions.
He also has not been able to move forward much with an agreement to integrate the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in eastern Syria. These are a mostly Kurdish force that worked with the US to defeat ISIS. The US trained and equipped the SDF since 2015, helping them field a fighting force of tens of thousands of men and women.
The SDF would be a huge help to Damascus in terms of building up a new army. However, Damascus wants a more centralized government, while the SDF and Kurds likely want a more federal structure that supports the gains they have had since 2015. The Kurds generally see the attacks on the Druze as what might be in store for them. As such, the Syrian transition president Shara’a should have been more attuned to preventing the clashes and thus preventing Israeli intervention. Instead, he seemed to vanish from a leadership role from July 13 to 16 as tensions escalated.
This provided Israel with an opportunity to intervene. Intervention, as noted above, is popular in Israel. Most politicians support the Druze and are skeptical of Shara’a. While some people think Israel and Syria might normalize ties and Syria could join the Abraham Accords, it is not clear how bombing will get to that result. The first Trump administration pushed the Abraham Accords and saw the UAE and Bahrain normalize ties with Israel.
What Comes Next with Israel’s Druze Test in Syria?
Israel has put down a red line. It doesn’t want to see clashes in Suwayda or other Druze areas. This backing could embolden some Druze who want more autonomy. It could lead to more clashes. However, Shara’a could also be pragmatic and see this as an opportunity to work with the Druze and also with Israel, and find a way to stabilize southern Syria.
Stability is also in Jordan’s interests, which has welcomed a ceasefire in Suwayda.
A reduction in tensions would also enable the US to continue its drawdown of forces in Syria and make the SDF feel more confident in integrating with Damascus. As such, Syria’s future may be tied to Suwayda. Israel’s next moves in Syria are also tied to Suwayda.
On July 16, Israel’s Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, went to the Golan to assess operations. “We are acting decisively to prevent the entrenchment of hostile elements beyond the border, to protect the citizens of the State of Israel, and to prevent the harming of Druze civilians,” he said.
He met with key commanders in the Golan, including the head of the IDF’s 210th Division, which is tasked with protecting the border with Syria. “We will not allow southern Syria to become a terror stronghold. We will not rely on anyone else, we will defend the communities along the border,” Zamir said during a tour of the sector. Israel is serious about protecting the Druze in Syria. Syria and Israel will need to get through this test if there is to be stability in southern Syria.
About the Author: Seth Frantzman
Seth Frantzman is the author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a Senior Middle East Analyst for The Jerusalem Post. Seth is now a National Security Journal Contributing Editor.
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taco
July 17, 2025 at 12:23 pm
Israel’s strikes at syria amount to blatant military aggression violating international law.
Can someone do the same now against israeli cities considering the ongoing slaughter committed against the gaza people by the IDF.
Israel is the western beachhead in the arab world and this is the main reason why Israel has always gotten away with its illegal acts.
It’s massively protected by the west, especially by US and germany and UK.
taco
July 17, 2025 at 6:22 pm
Israel is now bombing here and there, and carrying out daily slaughter in gaza, but the president is silent, like he’s totally unaware of it.
However, suddenly he’s turned on Putin, an unexpected total 180° about-face. What gives.
The big giveaway clue is his statement that Melania (his lovely doting wife) reminded him about a raid that just taken place after a phone call with vlad.
Anybody who’s smelt a rat before knows a big huge rat is just sitting right there.
Right there in front of ya.
That mention of Melania influencing fp (foreign policy) is a dead giveaway. The pres is fully loyal and faithful.
That was for public consumption.
In view of the growing hullabaloo over Epstein list.
How long do ya think the pres gonna last in his job. Not very long.