Key Points and Summary – Boeing’s F-47 (NGAD) contract starts around 185 jets—about $108M each—but that baseline may be too small.
-With F-35A mission-capable rates near 52% and only 143 combat-coded F-22s, usable stealth capacity is thin.
Shown is a graphical artist rendering of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Platform. The rendering highlights the Air Force’s sixth generation fighter, the F-47. The NGAD Platform will bring lethal, next-generation technologies to ensure air superiority for the Joint Force in any conflict. (U.S. Air Force graphic)
-China fields hundreds of J-20s and is adding J-35s; Russia’s Su-57s are growing, too.
-The F-47 is expected to outrange and out-pace current U.S. jets (≈1,000-nm radius, >Mach 2) and carry more weapons, making it the linchpin for air superiority.
-To hedge against low readiness and rising adversary numbers, analysts argue the USAF should target 300–500 F-47s—enough to deter in the Pacific and sustain combat power if war comes.
How Many Boeing F-47 Fighters Does the USAF Need?
Dr. Peter Gordon, Professor Emeritus at the University of Southern California (USC), was fond of telling his undergrad students in his Macroeconomics general education class back in the mid-1990s that “There’s no such thing as needs” because “There’s always substitutes.” Be that as it may, however well-reasoned Prof. Gordon’s claims may have been in theory, roughly 99.99% of the English-speaking population includes the word “need(s)” as part of its lexicon.
This statement is certainly true of the United States Department of War—the still unofficial title of the Department of Defense—in general, and the Department of the Air Force in particular. This poses the question, how many F-47 Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) 6th Generation fighter planes will the USAF “need” (at least on paper)?
Some Basic Numbers
The initial contract for the NGAD—which was signed back in March— is worth an estimated $20 billion to produce at least 185 airframes, which matches the number of Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor 5th-generation stealth fighters currently in the USAF fleet. That equates to $108,108,108.11 per individual F-47.
Interestingly, before the Trump Administration—not to mention Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) Chairman Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), himself a former USAF JAG officer—chose to revive the NGAD program, it had been put on “strategic pause” by the USAF brass.
One of the major factors driving the USAF’s initial skittishness about NGAD was its originally projected high price tag: a whopping $300 million, nearly triple that of the already notoriously expensive F-35 Lightning II (which, like the F-22 mentioned above, is a 5th-generation fighter built by Lockheed Martin’s venerable Skunk Works division).
Judging by the $108M per-unit average cited in the previous paragraph, it looks like some accounting whiz figured out how to bring down the original estimated costs by nearly two-thirds, which’ll undoubtedly please Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) Pete Hegseth.
A U.S. Air Force F-22 with the F-22 Raptor Demo Team performs aerial stunts at the 2022 Kaneohe Bay Air Show, Marine Corps Air Station Kaneohe Bay, Marine Corps Base Hawaii, Aug. 12, 2022. The air show provided an opportunity to demonstrate the capabilities of a Joint Force in the Indo-Pacific Region. The Kaneohe Bay Air Show, which contained aerial performances, static displays, demonstrations and vendors, was designed to express MCBH’s appreciation to the residents of Hawaii and their continued support of the installation. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Patrick King)
But Will 185 Be Enough?
Matching the numbers of operational F-22s is undoubtedly a good start, especially in light of then-SECDEF Bob Gates’ incredibly boneheaded decision back in 2009 to kill the Raptor after 381 airframes had been initially planned for assembly.
But, assuming for argument’s sake that it wouldn’t break the USAF’s budget to do so, it might be advisable to order an additional 302 F-47s to match the number of F-35 currently in the USAF fleet (according to the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft [WDMMA]).
The notion of building enough NGAD birds to match the aggregate total of existing F-22s and F-35s in the USAF arsenal takes on extra credence when you factor in the poor readiness rates for the latter two warbirds:
-The F-35A’s mission capable (MC) rate plunged from 69 percent in 2021 to 51.5 percent in 2024; in other words, only 155 of those Lightning IIs would’ve been ready to rock had the United States entered into a full-scale war last year.
-According to a September 20, 2025, article in Aero News Journal, the F-22’s “operational fleet is surprisingly limited, with only 143 combat-coded aircraft available.” That equates to a readiness rate of 77.2 percent.
Additional Needs Driver: Adversary Stealth Capabilities
In an actual World War III nightmare scenario wherein the US ends up having to go into a two-front war with both the People’s Republic of China and the revanchist Russian Federation, the USAF would need at least enough F-47s to match these two near-peer adversaries’ current stockpile of 5th Generation stealth fighters:
-Chengdu J-20 Wēilóng (“Mighty Dragon;” NATO reporting name “Fagin”); at least 150 in active service as of 2024, with possibly over 200 built to date.
-Shenyang J-35/J-35A; at least eight built to date.
-Sukhoi Su-57 “Felon” at least 32 built today.
So then, it would take at least 240 NGADs to match those adversaries on a one-for-one, tit-for-tat basis. Of course, that’s not even factoring in any additional “Fagins,” J-35s/J-35As, and “Felons” the Chinese and Russians build between now and the breakout of that hypothetical future war. Not to mention any 6th Generation fighters Beijing and Moscow potentially manage to get operational between now and then, i.e., the J-36 (AKA JH-XX) and the Su-75 “Checkmate.”
China J-20 Long Shot from 2021. Image Credit: Chinese Military.
Now, let’s say the US were to go to war only with China and not Russia. Right now, the aggregate total of F-22s and F-35s, 505 airframes, would exceed the number of J-20s and J-35s. However, the “Mighty Dragon” does also have certain technological advantages over the Raptor and Lightning II alike, namely:
-A max airspeed advantage over the F-35, Mach 2.0 versus a mere Mach 1.6.
-A combat range advantage over both the F-35 and F-22: 1,100 nautical miles vs. 760 nautical miles and 750 nautical miles, respectively.
The F-47 would obviate those current advantages possessed by the J-20. Though exact specifications are still murky due to both the infancy and the secrecy of the program, the NGAD warbird is projected to have a maximum speed in excess of Mach 2 and a combat radius of at least 1,000 nautical miles. The 6th Generation aspirant is also expected to have an increased payload, thus enabling it to stay in the fight longer than its 5th Generation predecessors.
In light of these facts, maybe a “need” for 300 to 500 F-47s doesn’t sound so unreasonable.
About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert
Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He is also the author of the newly published book “Five Decades of a Fabulous Firearm: Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Beretta 92 Pistol Series.”
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