‘Slap In the Face’: Trump’s Poll Numbers Keep Falling

Key Points – President Trump’s approval ratings have notably declined early in his second term, with even the typically favorable Big Data Poll showing a significant drop.

-Its May 5th survey placed Trump barely positive at 48% approve vs. 47.4% disapprove, down sharply from January’s highs, indicating his post-inauguration “honeymoon” period has ended.

-This poll remains an outlier, as the RealClearPolling average shows Trump underwater at -6.0 net approval, and most other major polls reflect negative ratings, particularly concerning his handling of the economy. The overall trend indicates waning public support for the president’s performance.

Bad Polls for Trump

The Big Data Poll has traditionally been more sympathetic towards U.S. President Donald J. Trump than most others. And while the latest edition of the poll is one of the few that has Trump with a positive approval rating, he’s looking worse in it than he has in previous editions.

What the Numbers Say

According to Newsweek, while the Big Data Poll has Trump with a positive net approval rating of 0.6, “there has been a sharp decline in the percentage of those who said they approved of the president.”

The latest Big Data Poll, released on May 5, found that 48 percent of respondents approve of Trump’s performance while 47.4 percent disapprove, with 4.5 percent undecided. The same poll, back in January, had Trump with 55.5 percent approval and 37.4 percent disapproval.

Diving In

The Big Data Poll’s own analysis called the shift downward “an unsurprising decline from the all-time high measured shortly after Inauguration Day.”

The poll, unlike most, breaks down the president’s approval by region.

Trump’s current approval rating is at 40.9 percent in New England, 44.4 percent in the Middle Atlantic, 48.6 percent in the East North Central, and 45 percent in the West North Central. Trump is most popular in the East South Central at 54.7 percent, while he’s at 51.6 percent in the West South Central part of the country. In the Mountain region, he is at 49.3 percent, and in the Pacific region, he’s at 42.1 percent.

“This dramatic of a decline is not entirely surprisingly given our last quarterly survey measured President Trump during the honeymoon phase of his second term,” Big Data Poll Director Rich Baris, said in the company’s release. “But all honeymoons come to an end, and it’s safe to say this one has, as well.”

Other Polls Say Otherwise

The Big Data Poll is something of an outlier, in listing Trump having a positive approval rating. The RealClearPolitics average has the president with a net approval rating of -6, which is better than it was amid the tariff cahos of late last month, but still shows Trump underwater.

Pro-Republican pollsters like Rasmussen and Trafalgar list Trump in positive territory in their most recent editions, but most other polls still show him in negative territory.

One of those is the Economist/YouGov poll, which shows Trump’s approval at -11 in its most recent edition.

A Worse Look For Trump

In that poll, 42 percent of respondents have a favorable view of Trump, and 53 percent have an unfavorable view of the president. Trump is favored by 48 percent of men and just 36 percent of women.

Among those who voted for him in 2024, Trump is still favored by 85 percent, while he’s favored by just 6 percent of those who voted for Kamala Harris.

Also in the poll, just 36 percent of respondents say the nation is on the right track, while 54 percent say we’re on the wrong track.

College Grades

The Economist/YouGov poll also shows the approval ratings of various colleges and universities, amid Trump’s push to cut funding or otherwise sanction such institutions.

The U.S. Military Academy at West Point has a high favorability rating, with 62 percent of respondents viewing it positively and just 8 percent viewing it unfavorably.

As for Harvard University, 57 percent of respondents view it positively, compared to 24 percent who view it negatively. Columbia University, another object of Trump’s ire, came in 44 percent favorable and 24 percent unfavorable, with 33 percent answering “don’t know.”

Stanford University has a 48 percent favorable rating, compared to 22 percent unfavorable, and 31 percent answering that they don’t know. The University of Texas is viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 13 percent, with another 43 percent answering that they don’t know.

Ohio State University is viewed favorably by 48 percent of respondents, and negatively by 14 percent, a cohort possibly represented by Michigan fans, while 38 percent said they don’t know.

About the Author:

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.