PUBLISHED on August 13, 2025, 10:11 AM EDT – Key Points and Summary – Russia’s next-generation PAK DA stealth bomber, envisioned as a rival to the American B-21 Raider, is mired in development hell and is now considered a likely failure by multiple Western analysts.
-Severe and repeated delays have plagued the program, a problem exacerbated by the economic strain of the Ukraine war and crippling Western sanctions.
-With its projected service entry pushed back to the late 2030s and serious doubts about Russia’s industrial capacity ever to achieve full-scale production, the once-hyped PAK DA is looking more like a “total hype” than a credible threat.
Russia’s PAK DA Stealth Bomber Dilemma Explained
The PAK DA is the stealthy strategic bomber that has been in development in Russia for several years.
However, how close it is to completion and how effective it will be remain very much in question.
According to a Military Watch magazine report in June, “considerable delays to the PAK DA program” have led Russia to resume production of the Tu-160 instead.
The PAK DA, per that report, is “now expected to enter service near the end of the 2030s,” although “Prioritisation of the program” could move that date up towards the middle of the decade.
The date of 2027 had originally been bandied about as the arrival date for the bomber.
Military Watch shared some history, as well.
“The design of the PAK DA bomber was reportedly finalised in 2019, after which a next-generation engine developed under the Izdeliye RF program was reported to have begun bench tests in 2022,” the report from June said. “In June 2021 sources in Russia’s military-industrial complex reported that ‘a completely new airborne defence system is being developed for PAK DA, which will protect it from all types of weapons – radar and optical,’ and that the aircraft would place a strong emphasis on electronic warfare for defence against enemy surface-to-air and air-to-air missile attacks.”
Those delays, that report added, are “in line with broader trends in the Russian combat aviation sector since the end of the Cold War.”
It’s part of Russia’s longstanding attempts to build an advanced stealth bomber.
How Will It Compare to the B-21 Raider?
In the National Interest, also in July, Maya Carlin looked at the question of whether the PAK DA, whenever it is completed, can “overtake” the forthcoming B-21 Raider.
Carlin notes that while the PAK DA has been in the design phase since the early 2000s, the expected timeline for its readiness has “continuously been pushed back.”
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 only complicated the timeline for the bomber further,” she writes. “Since the PAK DA remains in its design phase, the vast majority of specs and details surrounding the platform remain a mystery. Notably, the bomber’s flying wing configuration and minimized radar cross-section mirror the American-made B-2 Spirit bomber. In terms of rumored ordnance capabilities, some reports have suggested the PAK DA could have a payload of 30 tons, more than the 20-ton limit of the B-2.”
But Is It a “Failure”?
My colleague, National Security Journal national security columnist Steve Balestrieri, earlier this month, was ready to call the PAK DA a “failure,” citing the law delays.
“Exacerbated by Western sanctions and the economic strain of the war in Ukraine, there are serious doubts that Russia has the industrial capacity or workforce ever to put the PAK DA into full-scale production, leaving its future uncertain,” Balestrieri wrote. He added that the program hasn’t been helped by the continuing Ukraine war, as well as punishing sanctions from the West.
“The Russian stealth bomber is touted as a subsonic sixth-generation aircraft capable of carrying 30 tons of nuclear and conventional weapons with a range of 7,500 miles,” Balestrieri writes. “However, since the invasion, sanctions, a lack of funding, and the struggle to produce the necessary stealth technology have slowed progress.”
But he went further than that, questioning whether the jet would ever even get off the ground.
“None have ever developed aircraft on par with the best American stealth aircraft. What could go wrong?,” he writes. “Bottom line: the chances of this Russian bomber ever flying are most likely zero. The PAK DA stealth bomber appears to be total hype.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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