Key Points – Following a “worst week of the war” for Russia—marked by Ukraine’s devastating “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike on bomber bases, an attack on the Kerch Bridge, and other infrastructure collapses—Vladimir Putin faces a dilemma on how to retaliate.
-President Trump revealed Putin “very strongly” stated he must respond, stalling peace efforts.
-However, analysts suggest Putin is constrained by not wanting to alienate Trump with an overly brutal response.
-Speculation is also rising, following Trump’s disclosure that he and Putin discussed Iran’s nuclear program, about a potential “trade-off”: Russian help on Iran in exchange for US leniency on Ukraine.
Putin Had a Bad Ukraine War Week
As pointed out by Newsweek this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin might have had his worst week of the year. Maybe even his worst week of the Ukraine war since it started in 2022.
In addition to the major drone attack that damaged Russia’s military planes from coast to coast, Ukraine successfully carried out an underwater bombing of the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia and Crimea. In addition, two other bridges collapsed this week.
In addition to the other setbacks, per the report, “Russia’s investigative committee has launched a terrorism investigation into the collapse of two bridges in the border region following incidents likely to heap pressure on the Russian president.”
And while the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine did not yield much progress, Ukraine showed no signs of bending to Russia’s maximalist demands on territory, neutrality and demilitarization.
Retaliation
Putin, meanwhile, has vowed retaliation against Ukraine for the drone attack, as President Trump himself declared in a Truth Social post after his phone call with his Russian counterpart earlier this week.
“We discussed the attack on Russia’s docked airplanes by Ukraine, and also various other attacks that have been taking place by both sides. It was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate Peace,” Trump said on Truth Social this week.
“President Putin did say, and very strongly, that he will have to respond to the recent attack on the airfields. We also discussed Iran, and the fact that time is running out on Iran’s decision pertaining to nuclear weapons, which must be made quickly.”
It’s not clear exactly what Putin will do to retaliate against Ukraine, a country with which Russia has been at war since the initial invasion in early 2022.
What might the retaliation look like?
“If it will require the massive destruction of infrastructure, civilian infrastructure incurring many civilian losses, I wouldn’t say that it would help the talks and make President Trump happy,” Alexander Baunov, senior associate at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told the Washington Post. “And this is the dilemma for Putin: It needs to be something effective and efficient but something that will not make him lose Trump forever.”
That may explain the unsuccessful summit earlier this week in Istanbul, Baunov added.
“They need President Trump, and to not to lose President Trump, so they have to at least pretend they are engaged in conversation with Ukraine,” Baunov added. “And that’s basically the stage where we are now. They are pretending to be in direct conversations with Ukraine.”
“A Tacit Endorsement”?
According to a Washington Post analysis, Trump’s message about retaliation “has been widely interpreted in Russia as a tacit endorsement of Moscow’s right to strike back” after Ukraine’s drone operation. This came after Trump, somewhat uncharacteristically, had upbraided Putin for continuing the war in the previous weeks.
“Putin appeared to have swayed Trump over to his views on the conflict,” the Post said of the recent call between the leaders.
Trump addressed the situation again Thursday with reporters at the White House.
“Sometimes you see two young children fighting like crazy. They hate each other, and they’re fighting in a park, and you try and pull them apart. They don’t want to be pulled, sometimes you’re better off letting them fight for a while,” Trump said at the White House about the situation, which he said reflected what he told Putin on the call.
Others read other things into Trump’s Truth Social message about the Putin call, including the part where he mentioned Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The newspaper also noted that Iranian state media
“What happened was an obvious trade-off, Ukraine for Iran,” Abbas Galyamov, a political consultant and former Putin speechwriter, told the Post. “It looks like Putin phoned in with this proposal, essentially saying — don’t prevent me from dealing with Ukraine, and I will help you deal with Iran.”
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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