Key Points – Contrary to Vladimir Putin’s expectations, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made NATO stronger and more unified than ever. In fact, many experts would consider the Ukraine war a loss for Putin, as that was his biggest fear, as the alliance has grown since the war. Some even feel he started the war for fear Ukraine would join NATO and make it stronger.
-The alliance has expanded with Finland and Sweden, and members are increasing defense spending in response to pressure from both the US and the Russian threat itself.
-NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is calling for a 400% increase in air and missile defense spending and a new 3.5% GDP target for core military expenditures.
-Top military leaders like UK Admiral Sir Tony Radakin express high confidence in NATO’s ability to dominate in any potential conflict, a reality that undermines Putin’s strategic gambit.
Why Russia Lost the Ukraine War: NATO Is Now A Powerhouse
In the years since President Donald Trump first became president in 2017, NATO has become a punching bag for some Americans. Trump and his MAGA allies have castigated the alliance as a group of countries that do not “pay their fair share” and “freeload” on the United States. Trump called for members to spend at least 2 percent and now 5 percent of GDP on defense. That has shaken up NATO but has, in turn, encouraged some countries to invest more in defense due to the US’s lack of confidence in the alliance and the threat posed by Russia.
Putin naturally hates NATO for encroaching on Russia’s borders and swallowing the former Soviet states and old Warsaw Pact nations that Moscow considers its Near Abroad. Putin believes that NATO will attack Russia and violate its sovereignty. He uses these contingencies to whip up propaganda and raise the temperature of the Russian populace. This has been going on since the NATO-led war in Kosovo against Serbia in 1998-9.
NATO Is Growing, and Putin Has Failed to Stop It
But with the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has been shocked to find out the alliance has become even stronger. Sweden and Finland joined. The purse strings opened for Ukraine in a big way. NATO countries are indeed spending more funds on their militaries, and there is a heightened urgency for realistic training. Plus, US troops are rotating around NATO countries to advise and assist their allies. The US Army’s elite 173rd Airborne Brigade based in Italy and Germany is always ready to deploy rapidly anywhere in Europe.
The Poles have been a thorn in Putin’s side as they yearn for a permanent installation of American troops called “Fort Trump” – a project I worked on when I served in the US Senate as a staffer.
NATO Leadership Says Allied Nations Need to Spend More on Defense
Lately, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has been especially defiant against Moscow to rally his partner nations to spend even more. Rutte plans to speak in London on June 16, and he released some of his prepared remarks to the media. The Secretary-General wants NATO allies to spend an additional 400 percent on anti-aircraft systems and missile protection shields. Rutte knows that modern warfare is about the drone and ballistic missile fight, and he is ready for partners to adjust their spending to meet those threats.
Britain’s Starmer Is Beefing Up His Military
While Rutte is in Britain, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced that the United Kingdom will spend more on defense, reaching 2.5 percent of GDP by 2027 and potentially up to 3 percent by 2034. Starmer has even pledged that British troops will serve as peacekeepers once a ceasefire or armistice is agreed upon in Ukraine. Putin hates the idea of NATO soldiers close to his borders.
Rutte is not prepared to go as far as requiring 5 percent of GDP on spending from its members, but he is now calling for 3.5 percent, which is still a substantial amount that Russia despises.
Borrowing Churchill’s Optimism, Strength, and Resolve
The leader of NATO has said some Winston Churchill-like words when describing the future of NATO. “Wishful thinking will not keep us safe. We cannot dream away the danger. Hope is not a strategy,” he exclaimed.
The alliance is ready to face down Russia if Putin ever orders an invasion of a NATO state. The Russian dictator is already feeling the pressure. He has exhorted NATO to remove its troops from the Baltics before he agrees to end the war. Putin hates that Latvia and Estonia are so close to St. Petersburg. There is no way that the United States and NATO would agree to forsake the Baltics, but it shows that the alliance is flexing its muscles against Putin and putting fear into his strategic thinking.
Rutte also wants NATO countries to increase their spending on infrastructure, such as improving roads and bridges that would enable tanks and armored personnel carriers to reach the battlefield more quickly in the event of a Russian attack. He recommends that other spending be invested in the defense industrial base so partners can create military hardware that can counter Russian threats.
Can NATO Execute Warfare in ‘Phenomenal’ Fashion?
British Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the UK’s Defense Staff, is also optimistic about NATO. He thinks the alliance is stronger than ever.
Radakin believes that NATO airplanes and warships could dominate the skies and oceans during a potential conflict. He told parliament on June 11 that “if we were to get into a war with Russia, how quickly could we get control of the air? Because if you have sufficient control of the air, then your ability to put at risk a nation—and especially a nation’s economy—is very, very strong. How quickly can we have control of the sea? And again, that ability to have control of the sea—for NATO—is phenomenal.”
Putin thought a lightning strike against Ukraine would force the government to capitulate and allow Russia to annex all of its neighbor’s territory. Then, the United States and NATO would be frozen into inaction. He believed Trump would withdraw from the alliance and that members on the bubble would follow suit. That hasn’t happened, and NATO has become more confident as a result.
The alliance is more relevant than ever, and it has a bright future. Putin failed to frighten members into submission, thus losing on one of the main strategic gambits that encouraged him to invade Ukraine in the first place. There is even a remote possibility that Ukraine and Georgia could join NATO someday with a Ukrainian victory in the war. Putin would never agree to such a development, and the accession of Ukraine and Georgia will probably not occur this decade. However, it is a horrifying possibility that Putin must consider in his decision-making calculus.
Look for NATO to keep spreading its wings. The 2025 NATO Summit will take place in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 24 and 25. Members should feel optimistic that the alliance is strong and morale is high. There will be pledges to help Ukraine with more arms and ammunition.
We’ll see what Trump says, but the United States is likely to stay in and lead the way toward more defense spending to set an example for other countries. That will be poison to Putin, and alliance members can’t wait to show a robust form of unity at the summit.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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Michael Randolph
June 12, 2025 at 2:08 pm
Your caricature framing Poland as ‘Fort Trump’ made me laugh. Well done!
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