NATO’s Finland Test

During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, the President and three-decade autocrat of the Federation, claimed NATO expansion was a pretext for the full-scale war. However, several nations’ current actions, including Russia, contradict the Kremlin’s claims.

Finland, a small country with a capable defense industry and highly capable armed forces, applied for NATO membership in the spring of 2022. Finland, a neighbor of Russia that fought the latter frequently throughout history, was able to ascend into NATO with little interference from the Russians, raising questions about whether the defensive alliance was ever truly a threat that Putin claimed.

Finland in NATO

Ascending Finland as the 31st member state of NATO underscores putting pressure on Russia’s bluffs and enhancing security. Despite its size, Helsinki packs a powerful punch and soft power on the European continent.

Finland currently has one of the largest artillery stockpiles in Europe and has been doubling shell production since December 2023. In March 2024, the EU ASAP fund granted Helsinki a €32 million contract for 155mm artillery production—a shell frequently used in the Ukraine war.

With a modern Air Force, Finland is supplemented by F-35s and is in talks with Denmark, Norway, and Sweden to create a Joint Nordic Air Command. Helsinki’s trump card is the Finnish reserve army, numbering 900,000, one of the largest reservist forces in the world attributed to compulsory military service.

Enhancing American-Finnish Military Capabilities

Already having a close diplomatic relationship with the United States for over a century, Finland in NATO is now increasing bilateral ties through joint military exercises. Washington and Helsinki have held several military contingency scenarios exercises, such as ‘Freezing Winds’ and ‘Nordic Response,’ the latter of which took place near the Russian border. As mentioned, Finland is a major customer of the American-made F-35s. Helsinki is currently procuring 64 to advance its Air Force.

On July 2nd, Finland and America solidified the landmark Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA), which the Finnish parliament signed in December. The agreement allows the US military access to 15 Finnish military bases under the austerity of Helsinki’s permission to enhance the partnership.

Access to Finland’s military bases will increase America’s quick reaction forces in lieu of any contingencies if a war breaks out against Russia in the future, as Helsinki shares the largest land border with Moscow more than any other NATO member.

Russia’s Reaction to Finland Joining NATO

Compared to an all-out war with Ukraine, Russia is reacting to Finland’s growing capabilities with little concern. Despite Finland having a major artillery stockpile, an advanced Air Force, and one of the world’s largest reserve armies, Moscow’s borders with Helsinki have a minimal garrison.

On the backdrop of Finland’s application to NATO ascension, the Kremlin at most made verbal threats—which Eastern Europe has come accustomed to. Nevertheless, Moscow never saw Helsinki, with an even more advanced military than Kyiv’s, as a direct threat.

In the summer of 2022, the Russian military redeployed over a hundred tons of equipment and troops from the 80th Motor Rifle Brigade to Ukraine—signaling the growing losses during the war.

Signs of further withdrawal from the border in Finland came from Finnish foreign minister Elina Valtonen, who stated in an interview with the Financial Times in August 2023 that garrisons in Alakurtti aren’t as reinforced anymore.

Further satellite images in the spring, provided by Yle, showed that Russia transferred and redeployed most of its equipment and soldered it to Ukraine, which can be upwards of 80%, according to military sources to the Finnish publication.

Why Recent Events Show NATO is Not a Threat to Russia

The Kremlin’s optics and actions, between withdrawing the first line of defense units and heavy equipment from their border with Finland, which is incredibly growing ties with America, only underscores that NATO is not a threat to Russia, as Putin claims.

A central mechanism of control and fear Putin installs in his constituents is that NATO, if near Russia, would invade the country. Still, when Finland, which shared 1340 km of land border, ascended into the organization, Moscow did not react.

Whereas Russia immediately attacked Georgia and Ukraine with a pretext of using NATO (despite both countries being vetoed from the organization in 2008), there was no answer for Sweden’s and Finland’s ascension in 2022.

Assessments can be made that Putin and the Kremlin always see NATO as a defensive alliance instead of an offensive belligerent, as US forces plus the growing capabilities of the Finnish army in close proximity of the major Russian hub of Saint Petersburg aren’t seen as an existential threat.

Various statements hinted by Russian officials and Putin himself see Ukraine as inherently part of the “empire,” and the pretext of NATO was one of the justifications for renewed aggression, especially as former Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev himself stated there was no such agreement on ending NATO expansion.

In truth, putting Finland in NATO and growing military ties with America is not seen as a direct threat to Russian interests because Putin knows there was never a plan to attack Russia first preemptively. NATO itself is a threat to Russian imperial expansion. Therefore, it is much easier for the country to wage perpetual wars in countries such as Ukraine and Georgia in hopes of reinvigorating the empire.

About the Author: Julian McBride

Julian McBride is a forensic anthropologist, SOFREP contributor, and independent journalist born in New York. He reports and documents the plight of people around the world who are affected by conflicts, rogue geopolitics, and war, and also tells the stories of war victims whose voices are never heard. Julian is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO which aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.” McBride is also a Contributing Editor to this publication.