Could Canada Wait For the F-47 NGAD To Replace The CF-18?: The Royal Canadian Air Force desperately needs to replace its aging fleet of CF-18 fighters. Canada was the first country to sign on with the US for the F-35 program, but successive governments have waffled on the program.
With relations between the two countries at an all-time low, the Canadian government is reevaluating the F-35 program and exploring alternative options to reduce its dependency on the United States.
Canada’s F-35 Challenge
Could the US extend an olive branch to Canada by offering the first foreign sales of the F-47 NGAD? President Trump stated that the US was likely to extend the opportunity for foreign allies to purchase the F-47, unlike the F-22, which was restricted to the US due to technological concerns.
A few questions: Is this a way to better relations with Ottawa? Or would it be possible if relations with Canada were better? And finally, can the RCAF wait that long to get the F-47?
Canada’s Military Is In A Poor State of Readiness
Canada’s CF-18s are aging; some are already past their estimated life cycle. But that is just the tip of the iceberg. The Trudeau government allowed the Canadian military to become irrelevant, and frankly, it is unprepared for threats to its borders.
The strategic environment has shifted dramatically. The Arctic is no longer isolated. The region is an emerging battleground in great power competition. Russia continues to fortify its northern military presence, while China, declaring itself a “near-Arctic state,” is expanding its influence there, which is not in the best interest of Canada or NATO.
Besides the tariff and 51st state talk, Trump has offended Canada with his blunt, straight-shooting assessment of Canada’s defense strategy. Trump is fed up with NATO’s European and North American free riders of security guaranteed by Washington, and Canada stands among the worst offenders.
His second administration has demonstrated that it will not tolerate continued defense apathy. The days of assuming an automatic US security guarantee are over.
Why It Is Unlikely That the RCAF Could Wait For the F-47
Canada must upgrade its military defenses. The F-47 would represent the absolute cutting edge. However, the delay in getting it into Canadian hands may become too long for the Armed Forces to wait.
First, the Canadian government has already chosen the F-35 Lightning II as its replacement for the CF-18. Canada committed to purchasing 88 F-35A Lightning II fighters in 2022. The F-35, a fifth-generation stealth fighter, offers advanced capabilities and enhanced interoperability with allies.
Canada is holding another competition for fighters that the F-35 has already won. The F-35 is more than just a fighter jet; it’s a versatile and advanced platform designed for a wide range of missions, including air superiority, strike operations, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).
Its advanced sensors, communication systems, and stealth capabilities enable it to operate in contested airspace and serve as a key component of a networked air force, enhancing the capabilities of other air, ground, and maritime assets.
While the first operational F-35s are not expected until 2026, with full fleet capability unlikely before the early 2030s, the F-47 is just now entering initial limited production; it won’t be expected to become operational until 2029.
Canada has already committed to purchasing 16 F-35s, with the option to acquire up to 88. Continuing to prolong the life of its CF-18s is unsustainable and puts its defenses at risk.
The F-35 program offers significant economic benefits to Canada, including jobs and technological advancements. Building some parts of the aircraft inside Canada will boost trade with other NATO nations.
The RCAF’s requirements have shifted to prioritize air-to-ground operations, which the F-35 is designed to excel at.
Waiting for the F-47 sounds great on paper, but the RCAF can’t afford to wait that long. The F-35 is the answer, and they should forget politics for a moment, think of their future, and be pragmatic.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications
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