Key Points and Summary – China’s J-20 “Mighty Dragon” is now fielded in the hundreds and blends low-observable design with a heavy weapons load.
-Its core threat is beyond-visual-range combat: internal bays carry PL-15 missiles for long-reach shots, while PL-10s cover close-in fights; external hardpoints enable a high-payload “beast mode.” The jet can also strike ground targets and suppress air defenses.
U.S. Air Force Nathalie Olarte, crew chief, launches an F-16 Fighting Falcon from an undisclosed location within the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, Jan. 14, 2024. The F-16 can fly more than 500 miles (860 kilometers), deliver its weapons with superior accuracy, defend itself against enemy aircraft, and return to its starting point. The U.S. Air Force’s expeditionary capability enables U.S. and coalition forces to rapidly establish credible, combat-ready forces within U.S. Central Command’s area of responsibility to proactively deter potential adversaries. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Alexander Cook)
-Against Taiwan’s F-16V, the J-20’s stealth and BVR reach could deliver first shots, though U.S. F-22s/F-35s and superior training narrow the gap.
-Analysts expect the J-20 to lead day-one operations, making BVR tactics and missile defense pivotal in any Taiwan contingency.
A Swarm of Chinese J-20 Mighty Dragon Fighters in Beast Mode: A Tough Challenge
The J-20 Mighty Dragon is arguably China’s best fighter jet. There are around 300 J-20s in the Chinese air force fleet. This is an airplane with stealth characteristics, perhaps not as stealthy as the F-35 or F-22, but it still has a substantial level of radar evasion.
The J-20 is the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF) flagship, and it is often the standard to which the Chinese are compared.
China’s Own Form of ‘Beast Mode’
The J-20 also has significant firepower and can serve in “beast mode” when many bombs and missiles are needed for destruction in East Asia. This characterization instills fear in American and allied battle planners who analyze potential warfare in the Indo-Pacific. The J-20 has the numbers to be dominant, and the high level of munitions can make it even more destructive.
Think swarm assault with J-20 fighters armed to the max.
The PL-15 Can Do Serious Damage
The J-20 can carry four to six long-range PL-15 air-to-air missiles. These projectiles are beyond-visual-range (BVR) and are combat-proven. PL-15s have a range of 124 miles. They are guided by active radar homing.
The PL-15 was instrumental in the last large dogfight in May between India and Pakistan. India was operating Dassault Rafales, and Pakistan was flying Chinese-made J-10Cs. The Pakistani pilots made good use of the PL-15 to shoot down at least one Indian Rafale (maybe more, depending on media reports). This indicates that BVR kills will play a crucial role in future combat, with the PL-15 missile being pivotal for China’s future success in air-to-air combat against the J-20.
What Would a Large Dogfight Mean?
The Americans and their partners in East Asia are examining the engagement that included over 100 airplanes, the largest aerial battle since World War II. If a fourth-generation airplane like the J-10C had so much success, how would the fifth-generation J-20 perform in combat? The J-20 could carry six PL-15s, targeting a different U.S. or Taiwanese jet for each. This is not good news for intelligence analysts who can do the math and determine that the J-20 has a substantial edge in combat at beyond-visual-range.
On each side of the fuselage, the J-20 has smaller bays that can deploy one PL-10 short-range infrared-guided missile each. The PL-10 is designed for within-visual-range dogfighting and features high off-boresight targeting capabilities. The PL-10 is also a decent weapon that could allow J-20 pilots to score kills up close.
More Missiles on Hard Points
The J-20 will often operate in stealth with these munitions in internal bays, but it can also go beast mode without the high level of stealthiness and carry weapons on four external hard points. These would likely be more PL-15 or PL-10 missiles. This added firepower is concerning. While the J-20 pilots have no combat experience, they don’t have to be that skilled to simply launch a missile that can home in on an enemy target with ease.
The J-20 can also engage in ground strike with LS-6 series bombs and other precision-guided munitions. The Mighty Dragon can carry anti-radiation missiles for suppressing enemy air defenses. The J-20 has a full weapons capacity of 24,000 pounds.
The J-20 has no internal short-range cannon, but that is because the PLAAF believes in winning engagements with long-range missiles.
How Would the J-20 Match Up to Taiwan’s F-16V?
Hence, the Mighty Dragon is a valuable asset when it comes to its weapons load-out. This will allow it to create an advantage should the airplane go up against Taiwanese fighter jets in a potential attack. Taiwan features the F-16V Viper. The F-16V features AESA radar and a night-vision imaging system. The Viper can detect, track, and identify a large number of targets – perhaps more than 20 at the same time.
The F-16V can also fire AMRAAMs and Sidewinders in battle, and it does have a 20mm Gatling-style cannon for close-in engagements. However, the F-16V lacks stealth despite these features, and its survivability in a China-Taiwan showdown remains unclear.
The Americans feel better about their F-22s and F-35s going up against the J-20, but the heavy load of weapons for the Chinese fighter is a concern. U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps pilots conduct more realistic training than Chinese aviators. Still, the PLAAF frequently engages in “grey war tactics” to simulate and rehearse an attack on Taiwan.
The J-20 would be used on Day One of warfare against Taiwan to clear the way for a massive attack. The J-20 would be a featured asset in the offensive and would likely fly with the other stealth, fifth-generation fighter from China – the J-35.
J-35 Fighter Screenshot. Image Credit: YouTube Screenshot.
The Taiwanese have their hands full and would likely take some losses in the early days of an invasion. These pilots would have to fight for their lives to protect the homeland. This would be like a 21st-century Battle for Britain with daily aerial engagements. At the same time, an amphibious attack would establish a beachhead on Taiwan’s shores, where an armored spearhead could proceed to take Taipei.
The J-20 is a large concern for Taiwan and the United States. The PLAAF is not particularly intimidated by Taiwan’s top fighter jet – the F-16V. The Mighty Dragon could go beast mode and engage the F-16V at beyond-visual-range and follow the lead of the Pakistani pilots who used the PL-15 long-range missile so effectively against Indian aviators.
China builds more J-20s each month. This fleet is the heart and soul of the PLAAF, and the Mighty Dragon’s firepower is noteworthy. The Americans and their allies must study and execute tactics to make evasive maneuvers if the J-20 launches a huge number of PL-15s. BVR combat looks to be the wave of the future, and the Mighty Dragon is a platform that can execute it impressively.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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