11 Bombers Lost at One Base? New Details on Ukraine’s Devastating Drone Attack

Key Points – Following Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” drone strike on Russian airbases on June 1st, 2025, damage assessments are evolving.

-While Ukraine’s SBU initially claimed 41 aircraft hit, and Russia downplayed losses, open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysis of satellite imagery is providing a clearer picture.

-As of June 3rd, Radio Free Europe reports at least 11 strategic bombers (seven Tu-95s, four Tu-22M3s) were destroyed at Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk alone.

-Additionally, four Tu-95s and one An-12 transport were confirmed destroyed or damaged at Olenya Air Base in Murmansk.

-These figures indicate substantial losses to Russia’s strategic aviation.

How Much Damage Did Ukraine Cause in the Drone Attack on Russia’s Bombers?

When Ukraine launched Operation Spider’s Web on June 1, 2025, it shocked the world.

The attack, some 18 months in the making, used concealed drone platforms inside Russian territory to hit airbases as far as 3,000 miles from Kyiv.

Among the targets were Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers, Tu-160, and at least one A-50 airborne early warning aircraft – all core components of Russia’s long-range strike power and nuclear triad.

The losses, as we understand them, were so severe that it has opened Russia up to a window of strategic vulnerability that will last for as long as it takes to field next-generation bombers like the PAK DA, which are not expected to enter service before the 2030s.

But in the immediate aftermath of the strike, reports of the damage done varied significantly.

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed that 41 Russian aircraft were “hit” during the operation, and estimated the cost of the damage to be in the area of $7 billion. Russia, on the other hand, only acknowledged limited fires and no major losses. 

With both Ukraine and Russia unlikely to offer an honest assessment of what happened, Western media largely depends on open-source intelligence (OSINT), satellite imagery, and statements from Western officials to draw conclusions about the true damage incurred by attacks like this – and in just the last 24 hours, those assessments have already changed.

The Damage Confirmed So Far

Ukraine’s immediate claim that 41 Russian aircraft were damaged or destroyed could not be independently verified. The SBU estimated that their operation affected 34% of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers, while Moscow claimed that outside of fires at airbases in the Irkutsk and Murmansk regions, all drone attacks were repelled without any damage.

OSINT analysts, using satellite imagery, were able to quickly determine that at least 13 Russian strategic aircraft were damaged or destroyed during the strikes across all bases. June 2 assessments showed that two Tu-22M3 bombers, which cost approximately $100 million each, were destroyed in the Belaya Air Base. Satellite images also showed four Tu-95 bombers were destroyed at the same air base in the Irkutsk region.

On Tuesday, June 3, further assessments of satellite imagery published by Radio Free Europe revealed that at least 11 strategic bombers were destroyed in that facility alone, including seven Tu-95s and four Tu-22M3s.

An additional four Tu-95 bombers were confirmed destroyed in the Olenya Air base in Murmansk, along with one An-12 transport aircraft, on June 2. As of June 3, that assessment appears to have remained the same.

As OSINT analysts are presented with new information, we’ll soon have a better idea of exactly how much damage this strike caused, and how close Ukraine’s estimate of $7 billion in damage is to the truth. So far, analysts have refrained from offering an alternate estimate, based on limited evidence – although, some reports have cited Ukrainian experts who have provided a lower estimate of $2 billion.

About the Author:

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.

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