Trump Has a Problem: The ‘Foundation of His Power’ is Disintegrating

Donald Trump returned to the presidency earlier this year on the strength of a coalition very different from most winning Republican coalitions in the past.

As the Associated Press noted the week of the election in November, Trump won with a coalition that included his traditional base of white voters, those without college degrees, and older voters, while doing much better with most demographics, including younger people, and Black and Hispanic men.

While Trump will not be running for president again, the question many have been asking since November is whether the conditions of that election were singular, or if the results from 2024 were the start of a major, lasting realignment in American politics.

About three months into Trump’s presidency, there are already indications that the coalition that elected Trump is starting to crack.

“Party of the People” Has a Trump Problem

Perhaps it’s the tariffs, or perhaps it’s the fears of a recession. Or maybe the daily drumbeat of Trump appearing in the news for crazy reasons, which gives people reminders of what they didn’t like about Trump in the first place.

But according to a Vox analysis published Thursday, “his chaotic trade policy has hammered trust in his economic stewardship, his economic approval ratings are tanking, and his overall popularity continues to slide.”

Should the economy slide into recession and inflation continue, or get worse, it would mean that Trump won’t have delivered on his promises to the electorate, which would indicate that the coalition that Trump built for 2024 will not end up as all that durable.

There is some good news for the GOP, however, as a recent Quinnipiac University poll asked which party is more responsive to “the needs and problems of people like you.” The answer was split about evenly between the parties, although that is a question on which Democrats have traditionally led by double digits, per Vox.

More Coalition Worries

Ruy Teixeira is a nonresident fellow at the conservative think tank American Enterprise Institute, who has written for many years about politics and demographics; he contributes to the AEI site under the name “The Liberal Patriot.”

In March, he wrote about the dangers to the survival of Trump’s coalition, while also noting that Trump has dropped in popularity from the heights of the period just after his inauguration.

“Trump’s 2024 victory, while solid, was hardly a landslide—his popular vote margin was only about a point and a half and most of his swing state victory margins were close to that narrow national margin,” Teixeira wrote, adding that the GOP is currently “only modest voter defections away from an electoral drubbing.”

And because the GOP has very frequently underperformed during the Trump era, in special and midterm elections in which Trump’s name does not appear on the ballot, that doesn’t necessarily bode well for the party’s immediate future, whether in the 2026 midterms or in the post-Trump general election in 2028.

Polling is Ugly for Donald Trump

The RealClearPolitics polling average as of Thursday morning has Trump’s overall approval rating at 46.9 percent, compared to a disapproval rating of 50.3 percent. While some polls, like from The Daily Mail and Rasmussen Reports, have Trump’s approval rating higher, but the average sees Trump as underwater.

One poll released this week, from The Economist/YouGov, looks even worse for the president. It sees him with a favorability rating of just 42 percent, with an unfavorable of 53 percent. More respondents to that poll found Trump “Very unfavorable” than any type of favorable.

When asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling these specific issues?” 42 percent answered that they approved, while 49 percent said they disapproved.

One point for the durability of Trump’s coalition, however, is that of those who say they voted for Trump in 2024, 86 percent answered favorably, with just 12 percent viewing him unfavorably.

About the Author: Stephen Silver

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.