Key Points and Summary – Following devastating US and Israeli strikes, Iran could look to rebuild and enhance its military by acquiring five key weapon systems from its allies, Russia and China.
-To bolster its depleted air force, Iran could purchase the combat-proven Chinese J-10CE or the Russian Su-75 “Checkmate” stealth fighter.
-To reconstitute its shattered air defenses, it would likely seek more Russian S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems.
-Finally, acquiring Russian-made precision glide bombs would provide a cost-effective and powerful standoff strike capability.
-These procurements would significantly upgrade Iran’s ability to wage a protracted conflict.
Iran Could Rearm Heavily for a New Conflict over Its Nuclear Program
Iran is furious and defiant. The U.S. strikes on Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure have hardened Iranian resolve and may not convince them to totally abandon their atomic program and come to the negotiating table.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could be ready to beef up his military and dig in for the long haul. This means buying new military hardware that could extend the war against Israel and the United States indefinitely.
Here are five weapons systems that Iran could acquire to end the war:
J-10CE Fighter – The Chinese Version of the F-16 Could Make a Difference
The first thing Iran needs is new fighter jets. One on the market is from China.
The J-10CE is a fast and maneuverable warplane available for sale at a competitive price of $50 million per unit. The Vigorous Dragon is comparable to the American F-16 Fighting Falcon. It is combat-proven with excellent performance in the significant Indian-Pakistani aerial clash in May.
Pakistani J-10CEs may have shot down as many as four Indian Dassault Rafales without suffering any losses.
The J-10CE is an admirable fighter jet. It is an all-weather multirole option for Iran and can be used for dogfighting or surface strikes. The Vigorous Dragon features digital fly-by-wire controls and a decent level of radar evasion capabilities. The J-10CE can hit MACH 1.8.
It has “active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, helmet-mounted display and sight (HMD/S) system, infrared search and track (IRST), and integrated electronic countermeasures (ECM) system,” according to Quwa.
Su-75 Checkmate – Russia’s Stealth Fighter Jet Could Be an Option
But what about a stealth airplane? Iran could contact Russia and negotiate a deal for the Su-75 Checkmate. This warplane could use a customer, and Iran fits the bill. The Checkmate is a bargain that could be purchased for only $30 million each.
The Su-75 could reach a speed of MACH 2. The Checkmate has borrowed cockpit features and stealth coatings from Russia’s Su-57 Felon. It likely makes good use of artificial intelligence for improved survivability, target acquisition, and tracking. Russia believes the Su-75 is just as good as the F-35 Lightning II.
Air Defense Systems Must Be Added
Iranian air defenses are needed badly. Israel has knocked out the best surface-to-air missile (SAM) launchers that Iran can field. Without some form of an air defense shield, Iran could not prosecute a war with Israel and the United States. Russia could provide the S-300 SAM system to Tehran, and the Iranians would be forever grateful.
The S-300 is a well-known system that the Iranians are familiar with. This system dates back to the late 1970s, during the Cold War, and has been highly effective in taking out adversarial warplanes since then. Its heavy warhead blasts into fragmentary material that is poison to enemy fighter jets. The maximum range is 93 miles. Iran has purchased the updated S-300P system since 2016.
The S-400 SAM Is Even Better for Iran
Even better would be the S-400 Triumf SAM system. This is more complicated to operate, but its specs are impressive. Russia would also charge more money for the S-400 and this SAM launcher, and its effective interceptor missiles may not be available due to the war against Ukraine.
The S-400 uses a mobile launcher, which would be an excellent fit for the Iranians. The S-400 is comparable to the American Patriot SAM system. One of the new S-400 interceptor missiles uses advanced “hit-to-kill” technology. The S-400 has a great range. Its maximum combat radius is 248 miles.
Russian Glide Bombs Are Powerful and Cheap to Purchase
Iran could use the new fighter jets from China and Russia to drop Russian-made glide bombs. These have been highly effective against Ukraine. The Russians have been able to launch these munitions from inside their airspace. They have GPS guidance systems and are more precise than “dumb” bombs. Glide bombs are also more affordable than ballistic or cruise missiles. The handy munitions weigh between 1,100 and 6,600 pounds, so they pack quite a punch. Iran could use these deadly weapons against Israeli population centers – missions the Russians have executed to great effect.
With these airplanes, air defenses, and bombs, the Iranians would be back in business. They would need considerable investment and time to train on flying the new airplanes. Plus, the Russians and Chinese may not want to be seen as escalating a conflict in the Middle East. However, Iran is an ally and part of the Authoritarian Axis.
The best option that would immediately benefit the Iranians would be to acquire more S-300s and S-400s. There is no way Tehran could fight without a missile defense system. The stealth Su-75 would be great, but a more realistic option would be the Chinese J-10CE. There would be a learning curve for pilots; however, the Iranians would be able to fly the airplanes within six to 12 months. The aviators would likely be able to master the glide bombs quickly.
One problem with the American and Israeli strikes is that Iran’s resolve is strengthening. If Tehran could get its hands on this hardware described above, the Iranians could lengthen the war and make the Americans and Israelis enter a protracted conflict that their voters would not want. Thus, it is important for the Israelis to continue the ceasefire and for the Americans to attempt diplomacy that would keep the Iranians from acquiring a nuclear device. Because if those attempts fail, the Russians and Chinese are liable to sell advanced airplanes, air defenses, and weapons to Iran.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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