China Has a Sneaky Way to Track and Sink Navy Aircraft Carriers

Key Points – Chinese scientists claim to have developed a new method for tracking US warships, including aircraft carriers, by using an algorithm to analyze the “fingerprints” of their wake patterns in low-resolution, open-source satellite imagery.

-The research, led by a team at the Dalian Naval Academy, suggests that even when a ship is too small to be seen directly in an image, its wake provides an unmistakable sign of its presence and movement.

PHILIPPINE SEA (Feb. 5, 2024) The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) transits the Philippine Sea, Feb. 5, 2024. Theodore Roosevelt, flagship of Carrier Strike Group Nine, is underway conducting routine operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. An integral part of U.S. Pacific Fleet, U.S. 7th Fleet operates naval forces in the Indo-Pacific and provides the realistic, relevant training necessary to execute the U.S. Navy’s role across the full spectrum of military operations – from combat operations to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. U.S. 7th Fleet works together with our allies and partners to advance freedom of navigation, the rule of law, and other principles that underpin security for the Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Andrew Benvie)

-While the true military effectiveness of this technique is debatable—it could be hampered by weather or simply be exaggerated—it highlights China’s innovative approach to leveraging publicly available data for intelligence purposes.

How China Plans to Track Aircraft Carriers Using Only the Waves They Make

It shouldn’t surprise us that the Chinese always look for ways to track US Navy aircraft carriers. The potential fight in East Asia could boil down to which navy has the most survivable flat-tops. But we are talking about a massive amount of ocean that needs to be scanned by both sides. To make targeting and tracking easier, Chinese scientists have developed a new method to monitor US carrier operations.

How are the Chinese doing this? They have found that intelligence analysts could “see” how images of waves give off unmistakable signs that carriers are steaming ahead and leaving a large wake that moves seawater.

Who Is Doing the Research?

The work is being conducted by a scientific research team led by Hong Jun of the Dalian Naval Academy. They published their latest finding in the Chinese aerospace science journal “Computer Simulation.” Tracking ships is easier to do than you would expect. Chinese scientists have found that they can examine existing satellite imagery freely available from open-source suppliers. They have formed an algorithm to sniff out wave patterns left by the American warships.

Looking Into Grains of Sand

However, examining the imagery that will give off signals from the carriers is more difficult than simply obtaining the satellite information. Carriers take up only one pixel or less of an image. You can’t see that small size with the naked eye.

(June 11, 2017) Sailors aboard the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Pinckney (DDG 91) stand in formation as the ship pulls alongside the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) to conduct a replenishment-at-sea. The Pinckney is currently underway as part of the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group on a regularly scheduled deployment to the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Craig Z. Rodarte/Released)

But the Dalian Naval Academy team has figured out a way to discover ship movements from the images. They claimed to have identified the location of an American Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, a Ticonderoga-class cruiser, and an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer using inexpensive satellite intelligence.

The algorithm for discovering ships in low-resolution images powers the system, and the Chinese are not disclosing how it works. The Chinese think that by focusing on the pixels, they have identified a ship’s “fingerprints” and can pinpoint their location.

“Their method focuses on analyzing the waves behind the ships, a simple technique that could be used by almost any country or organization. Different ships create distinct wave patterns on the sea surface, similar to fingerprints,” according to the South China Morning Post.

Intrepid Chinese Scientists Strike Again

“The report says that platforms like NASA’s Worldview offer near-real-time imagery for free for entities without advanced satellite capabilities, albeit at lower resolutions. However, it mentions that the researchers note that even these images can be valuable for ship identification due to the extensive wake patterns of ships,” according to Asia Times Online.

China may have made a mistake by bragging about this capability. It would be easy to restrict the images available. One would only have to block the IP addresses from China that are plundering the satellite data.

Is This a Head Fake by Chinese Researchers?

Also, Chinese scientists are known for faking research just to get published in shady journals. Academicians are not warfighters and do not understand the realities of military intelligence. This is likely an exaggerated capability that attempts to convey the impression that Chinese scientists are on top of things.

However, it could be used in a military application someday. Analyzing the wake is one way to track ships, and using open-source imagery is a good idea that is available to anyone. This reminds me, though, of a group of teenage hackers tinkering with publicly available, low-quality satellite imagery rather than a fully developed military capability for professional intelligence analysts.

The Chinese should be given credit for discovering a wrinkle in the images, but they made a mistake by disclosing it to the public. So, let’s not get carried away. It may not be legitimate. However, the initial discovery was made in 2024. The Chinese may have improved on the algorithm since then, although there are no other reports in the media of what the research team has been up to lately.

PHILIPPINE SEA(Feb. 22, 2016) USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) sails through the Philippine Sea. Providing a ready force supporting security and stability in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region, Stennis is operating as part of the Great Green Fleet on a regularly scheduled 7th Fleet deployment. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Cole C. Pielop/Released) .

If the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is building on the discovery, they will keep it under wraps for the time being. They may also stop military researchers from publishing their sensitive findings in publicly available scientific journals accessible to the public.

Not Completely Without Drawbacks

Besides, the system may have faults. Weather patterns, such as storms, high winds, and thick cloud cover, can mask the movements of vessels. The carrier strike groups could change direction under these conditions, and the algorithm would lose track of the ships.

However, the Chinese are likely using the algorithm to analyze military-grade space-based intelligence and reconnaissance gathered by their satellites from indigenously produced systems. This is of higher resolution than the open-source imagery.

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Scientists should be given points for creating software that analyzes satellite data more effectively. They may indeed be able to spot and track US warships, but this doesn’t mean they will have such a significant advantage in warfare. Wave analysis is not perfect, and carrier battle groups can mask their movements under various weather conditions.

However, the PLAN will likely consider using unconventional means gleaned from the private sector and academia for military purposes.

Beijing is marshaling ideas and innovations from all aspects of society to give its military an advantage.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

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